Two of the hottest teams in hockey will meet tonight in Florida, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning face off for the first time since the Bolts eliminated the Buds in the first round of the playoffs last season.
Mitch Marner is looking to break a franchise record tonight with a point in 19 straight games, but a Tampa Bay forward might be the most motivated coming into tonight.
Find out who in my free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning best odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning picks and predictions
Steven Stamkos just collected career point No. 1,000 in his last game, becoming the 48th player to do so and the ninth active player. He's been red-hot of late, riding a nine-game point streak, but his prop markets are quite bloated at -235 for a point and -170 for Over 2.5 shots on goal.
So, to pivot, I’m taking his linemate to record a point at a much better price.
Nick Paul is coming off a two-goal game including a game-winner. He’s collected a point in 11 of his last 16 games and has 16 points over that stretch. He’s playing over 19 minutes a game of late and doing most of his offensive damage at 5-on-5, which will likely be needed vs. the Leafs, who take very few penalties.
Stamkos has totaled 58 points in 45 career games vs. the Leafs and loves playing his hometown team, especially in prime-time, but Mississauga-born Paul also has a good track record vs. the Buds and scored both goals in a 2-1 Lightning win in Game 7 of last year’s playoff meeting. This line should continue to click today and is probable to score at least once.
Bettors should also be looking to hit Mitch Marner’s last goal prop (+1,500) as he is looking to break a franchise record with a point in 19 straight games. We saw the team desperately try to get Marner on the scoresheet last game and if he is pointless late with his team leading, he could be double shifting looking for that last goal and chance at the record.
My best bet: Nick Paul Over 0.5 points (-120 at SportsInteraction)
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning moneyline analysis
Coming into tonight’s game, both teams are 7-2 SU over their last nine games but the Bolts are winning by scoring, and the Buds are doing it with great goaltending.
Tampa is averaging over 4.00 goals per game while the Leafs have a 2.00 GAA over their last 10 games, which is the second-best mark in hockey. With two teams who are familiar with each other but are playing two different styles of hockey of late, where should bettors land tonight for a side?
This moneyline opened Tampa -130 and has seen some action on the Leafs to bring it to -125. The books are saying that Leafs would be favored in a neutral location as home ice is worth roughly 25 points. The Leafs played three games in Tampa last season during the playoffs and closed as +110, +110, and +130 underdogs going 1-2 SU but matching the Bolts in goal production with 11.
Tonight’s price is similar to how the Leafs were being priced last season in the playoffs and with the changes from last season, this game is being priced very accurately.
The Lightning have struggled to get solid play in net, as Andrei Vasilevskiy is 9-8 SU on the season with a 2.77 GAA and a .908 save percentage (SV%). Those numbers are well off his career marks and the reason the Lightning have needed so much offense to win games.
That plays nicely into the Leafs' hands, as they're playing a much different style of hockey since these two last met. Toronto is getting elite goaltending, as both Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov have a SV% of .924 or better, and the team is winning low-scoring games.
It will be Murray in net tonight for the visitors and since he’s come back from injury, the veteran netminder is 5-0-1 with a 2.17 GAA and a .938 SV%. He’s playing in front of a team that is allowing the fifth-fewest shots on goal at 28.8 and has won five straight games, including wins vs. the Devils and Penguins, and covering the puck line in three straight games.
The Lightning have been relying on their power play to support the offense, as they’ve scored in nine straight games with the man advantage and have 13 total power-play goals over that stretch. Despite a very thin blue line, the Leafs’ penalty kill has been great, allowing just one PP goal over the last six games. The Leafs also take penalties at one of the lowest rates in the NHL giving the advantage to Toronto in special teams which could certainly be the deciding factor tonight.
Despite injuries piling up, Sheldon Keefe has his team playing its best hockey of the season. No team has scored four or more goals vs. Toronto over its last 10 games and if this game is going to be a close low-scoring affair, the edge is with the visitors who have shown they can win games tight games.
The Bolts, on the other hand, have just two wins with three or fewer goals and seven of the Lightning’s 15 wins have also come when their opponent has scored at least three goals. This is a Tampa team that needs plenty of goal support to win games of late and that might not work tonight vs. the Buds.
Toronto is playing better defensive hockey and can mitigate the strength of the Lightning, which is their power play. The Leafs are 3-0 as plus-money underdogs this season with wins against the Hurricanes, Devils, and Penguins all coming over the last 30 days.
The Leafs at +108 on the ML are very appetizing tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Over/Under analysis
This total is a tough one for bettors as it pits a great Under team in Toronto (7-17-1 O/U) vs. a good Over team in the Lightning (12-9-2 O/U). In these situations, I tend to favor the defense, and with how well the Leafs have been playing in net and suppressing quality chances, I’m leaning on the Under 6.5 tonight.
The market is also agreeing with me, as this total opened at 6.5 but has hit 6 in many spots. Since the start of November, the Leafs have played just two games (of 15) that have seen both teams score at least three goals, which is a big point of emphasis I have when looking to bet Over 6.5s. If I don’t see a good possibility for a 3-3 game, then I’ll look elsewhere for an Over.
Amazingly, the Leafs have not played in a game that has seen more than seven goals all season. For comparison, the Lightning have seen eight or more goals four times over their last nine games. I always tend to lean that the better defensive team will dictate the pace of the game and if that holds true today, we could see another low-scoring Leaf game.
As mentioned above, the Lightning have the best power play in hockey since November 1 but with Toronto taking very few penalties, Tampa might not get as many opportunities tonight with the man advantage.
Toronto has also been one of the lowest-scoring third-period teams, seeing an average of 1.29 total third-period goals over the last 30 days, which is the lowest mark in hockey.
With the key injuries to the Leafs’ blueline (missing three top defenders), the forwards have needed to help out more, which they’ve done impressively of late but that is also taking away from the offense, which is scoring just 3.14 goals per game over the last 30 days (17th in the league).
If you can find the Under 6.5, that’s a play for me but I’m likely off the total at 6.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 4-0 SU in their last four Saturday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, December 3, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning key injuries
