Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Victor A-Hed of the Pack

The Toronto Maple Leafs have gone 0-9 SU in series-clinching games since 2004, but they have a chance to win their first playoff series in 19 years tonight, leading the Tampa Bay Lightning three games to one, and enter Game 5 as a -160 home favorite tonight.

With a thin blueline and possibly some more time with the first power-play unit, is tonight a good time to back Victor Hedman to contribute offensively at solid plus money?

Find out where my best bets lie in our NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Thursday, April 27.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 odds

Lightning vs Maple Leafs series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 27.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 predictions

Victor Hedman might not be the de facto No. 1 defenseman in Tampa anymore, but this is still an offensive rearguard who is healthy enough to play 30 minutes and is getting looks on the top power play. When you add in that he’s +135 to record a point (the longest of all Tampa players at 0.5 points), there’s a lot to like in the Swede finding the scoresheet tonight.

After missing Game 2, the former Norris winner has averaged over 31 minutes of ice time in two overtime games. The Lightning are thin on the blueline, and he and Mikhail Sergachev are getting more ice time than anyone in the series.

It’s Sergachev who is penciled in as the PP1 quarterback, but Hedman finished with more time on the first unit at 5-on-4 in Game 4 and assisted on the only power-play goal the Bolts had. Getting that PP1 time is very important as 11 total power-play goals have been scored in the series on 34 opportunities. Those extra-attacker goals are making up 31% of the total scoring in the series. 

If Hedman even sniffs the first unit tonight, the +135 he’s available at for a point would be a steal. But even if he doesn’t see much power-play time, getting 28 or more minutes in a projected high-scoring game should move this price much closer to even money. If he plays 28 minutes and sees the first power play, the fair price is closer to -130, which is where Sergachev sits. 

In a must-win game, Tampa and Jon Cooper will lean on his horses, which means a heavy dose of Hedman, who will be on the ice in any game script. He’s also facing a team with a .873 SV% in the playoffs.

The Lightning have been the better team in three of the four games, are projected to score around three goals (Over 2.5 goals is -190), and Hedman is going to play roughly half the game. This price is very long. Some books are as short as +115.

My best bet: Hedman Over 0.5 points (+135 at SIA)

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 moneyline analysis

The Maple Leafs have been outplayed in three of the four games in the series, have needed lucky comebacks in back-to-back games, and have struggled to stop the puck with an .873 SV%. Yet they sit one win away from eliminating the Lightning and winning their first playoff series in 19 years. Over that stretch, they are 0-9 SU in series-clinching games, including losing back-to-back games to the Lightning in last season’s playoffs after taking a 3-2 series lead. 

It really is hard to back the Leafs on the moneyline tonight with their recent play. Tampa is winning the possession game and has one of the biggest scoring-chance percentages in the postseason at 57.3% at 5-on-5. Through four games, Tampa has generated 125 scoring chances to Toronto’s 93.

Toronto closed as a -150 home favorite in Game 1 (Hedman was out for Game 2) but has gotten a little shorter for tonight, as it has moved from -150 to -160. Tampa at +140 is likely as long as bettors will see the Bolts in the series with the current lineup.

The hardest part about handicapping this game is the lack of solid goaltending on both sides. Toronto and Tampa have the two worst save percentages in the playoffs, and that has correlated to the two best shooting percentages. There’s been a lot of discussion on the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, but if either goaltender is going to put on a game-winning performance, it will likely be Vasilievskiy and not Ilya Samsonov, who has a .876 SV% through four games and a sub-.900 SV% over 12 career playoff games. 

I think the +140 price on the visitors tonight is the best price we’ll see, and crosses the threshold from lean to play. At +135, I might consider the Bolts, but if it hits +130, I’m off the moneyline altogether.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Over/Under analysis

The Over is a perfect 4-0 in the series, and that’s with the books adjusting the total from 6 to 6.5 following Game 2. Neither team is getting any goaltending, as both clubs rank in the bottom of all playoff teams in save percentage. Both power plays are also getting plenty of opportunities (8.5 combined opportunities per game), and they’re scoring with those chances with 11 power-play goals through four games. But can these rates continue tonight in a must-win game?

Elimination games are hard to play for totals because uncharacteristic empty-net goals are always in play and usually priced in. That means if the Leafs are leading late, they could see an empty net up 4-1 or even 5-1. But that’s not enough of a reason to trust the metrics through four games which point to an Under 6.5 here.

First off, the power-play opportunities have become fewer as the series has progressed, and I doubt we see many ticky-tack calls in an elimination game.

Secondly, the goaltending can’t get any worse. Samsonov and Vasilevskiy have both been awful in this series — sporting sub-.900 save percentages — and an average-to-good game in net is coming sooner or later. Both goalies rank dead last in goals saved above expected among netminders who have played at least three games. 

Additionally, the play at 5-on-5 hasn’t produced a lot of high-quality scoring chances. Toronto ranks 11th and Tampa 12th in expected goals/60 of the 16 playoff teams. The series has seen around 23 expected goals of the total 34 total scored, per Natural Stat Trick. Both the current save percentages and shooting percentages are hard to project to continue at their current rates, and if either side can have some average goaltending, the Over could be in trouble. 

Personally, I’m not playing this total, but the metrics do point to a series that has had plenty of unexpected goals, as both teams’ goaltending is below average. If few penalties are called and both goalies give us at least a .900 SV% performance, the Under is more likely to hit than not.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The road team is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 game info

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 injuries

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