The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets open a three-game set in Alberta on Friday as the home-side Flames are in poor form and need to fix things quickly if they want to make the playoffs.
Coming off back-to-back losses to the Senators, Calgary will need a big performance in this important three-game, four-day series if it wants to play some meaningful contests later in the schedule.
Here are our NHL betting free picks and predictions for Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames for Friday, March 26 (10:00 p.m. EST).
Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames betting preview
Injuries
Jets: Bryan Little F (out).
Flames: Brett Richie F (questionable), Joakim Nordstrom F (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Flames.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonCalgary is down a few cents at TwinSpires, opening -125 on the moneyline and sitting at -121 as of 6:45 p.m. ET. Winnipeg is taking 62 percent of tickets and 68 percent of money. The total moved from 6 to 5.5, with the Under collecting 54 percent of bets/60 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
After losing their two most recent games to the struggling Senators earlier this week, the Calgary Flames are at a low-point in their season and find themselves needing to do a lot of work to get into the playoffs with only 22 games remaining.
The Calgary offense managed just two goals (3.41 expected goals) versus Ottawa, who allows the most goals per game at 3.74 this year. Playing a Winnipeg team that has conceded just 10 goals in its last five games is probably not the best matchup for this Flames’ offense to get hot.
The Jets have pushed themselves into the second spot in the North Division thanks to some solid hockey over the last two months. Since February 1, the Jets have a point percentage higher than the North-leading Maple Leafs, thanks to a 14-8-2 mark over that stretch.
Winnipeg’s strengths lie in its depth at forward, as the Jets can roll out three potent lines against opponents and get scoring from each one. Third-liner Andrew Copp netted four goals on Thursday and leads a forward group that has six players with 20 or more points, while five of those skaters have at least 10 goals.
With the quick turnaround and a game Saturday, we could see a team roll with a back-up goaltender and the No. 1’s go Saturday and Monday. If this is the case, the Jets hold the advantage, as backup Laurent Brossoit is 4-1 SU in his last five and has allowed two or fewer goals in four of those starts. Both Calgary netminders sport GAA’s above 2.86 (league average is 2.74) and are 2-3 SU in their last five starts. Regardless of who is in net for the Jets, Winnipeg has the edge in the crease.
Even with the addition of Darryl Sutter behind the Calgary bench 10 games ago, the Flames have not responded as the ownership would've liked. The team is 4-6 SU under their new boss and is scoring just 2.30 goals per game. With teams gearing up for the playoffs, Calgary could find itself as a seller if things don’t improve in the win column.
Four of the five matchups have produced one-goal games and we’d expect another close contest on Friday. But with the better team paying near-even money, we’re riding the Jets.
PREDICTION: Winnipeg ML (-105)
Over/Under pick
The Jets and Flames haven’t met since early February, but the three previous matchups have produced three straight Unders. Of their five games played this year, a team has scored four goals in regulation just once.
The Jets ran an impressive 8-0 Over streak just 10 days ago, but are 1-2-1 O/U since then and now have to face a team with a lot to play for. Calgary returns home after being embarrassed after going 0-2 SU against the Sens and scoring just two goals in the process. The Flames are desperate and under old-school coach Sutter, should come out hard Friday and compete, meaning less free ice for the Jets.
The home team is running a bottom-10 offense over its last 10 games and scoring just 2.30 goals per game. The offensive struggles include the 23rd-best power play (16%) which has gone 0-for-7 over its last three contests and hasn’t been getting many opportunities of late. The Flames are also one of six teams this year that are scoring under three goals per game while also allowing under three goals per game.
We feel comfortable taking the Under with either Winnipeg goalie in net and have no preference between David Rittich and Jakob Markstrom for the Flames. Rittich owns better splits at home and of late, while Markstrom is coming off two tough-luck losses to Ottawa that saw the goalie stop 49 of 53 shots (.924 SV%).
The total opened at 5.5 and immediately hit six. If either backup is announced as the starter, we could possibly get a better price on the Under, but as of now, we’re hitting the Under in what is a huge game for the Flames, who should come out and play competitive hockey with their season on the line.
PREDICTION: Under 6 (-115)
Jets vs Flames betting card
- Winnipeg ML (-105)
- Under 6 (-115)
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