The struggling Vegas Golden Knights play their second game of a six-game road trip tonight in New Jersey vs. the Devils, who have won six of their last seven games and seem to be past their mid-season slump.
Vegas will likely be without Mark Stone for a sixth straight game (1-4 SU) and on the road vs. a deep Devils team, this could be a problem. The market likes the Under and the home side, and although I think the price is a little long on the visitors, there is some value in fading the Knights’ player props.
Find out my best NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Devils.
Golden Knights vs Devils best odds
Golden Knights vs Devils picks and predictions
Alex Pietrangelo is a very important piece to this Vegas team, but I’ve always regarded his point total as one of the most mispriced player point props in the league. His Under 0.5 points is -104 and that’s where it is nearly every game. This is a defenseman that has been held pointless in 20 of his 39 games this year including eight of his 12 games since the restart.
He gets opportunities, which is where the price comes from, but this isn’t the easiest matchup vs. a New Jersey that allows the third-fewest shots on goal and ranks third in GAA at 2.61.
Pietrangelo has just five points in his team’s 14 losses and Vegas enters tonight as decent +145 dogs which I feel is a little long, but the market hasn’t moved on it since opening.
Over 30% of the D-man’s points have come on the power play — New Jersey has a Top-10 penalty kill and ranks in the Bottom 10 in total penalties per game.
In this matchup, I have Pietrangelo at under 50% to record a point tonight and at -104, that’s enough value for me to make a play on it. Piertrangelo could still get held off the scoresheet even if Vegas makes this a competitive game with the Over 6 in play. There are plenty of outs here as the market is moving to the Under and the Knights are decent dogs.
My best bet: Alex Pietrangelo Under 0.5 points (-104)
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Golden Knights vs Devils moneyline analysis
The Vegas Golden Knights will be playing their third game in four nights, and likely their sixth game without captain Mark Stone. The team has lost four of the five games without Stone, culminating in a bad 4-1 loss Sunday to the Coyotes. Stone is week-to-week and this already-injured team is going to have to deal with this blow in the second half of the season. But, at +155, is this a long price on a Top-10 team?
Vegas has dealt with injuries all season, including top-six forwards like Jack Eichel. They’ve also been a +140 or longer road dog just once this season, closing at +145 in Boston vs. the best team in hockey without Eichel in the lineup.
If Eichel and Stone are worth the same price, I don’t see why Vegas is longer tonight in New Jersey than it was in Boston.
Yes, the Devils look to be past that slump that saw them go 4-9 SU in December, but they aren’t a Top-5 team in hockey, even though they are being priced as it is.
New Jersey is 7-3 SU in January but also has wins over the Sharks, Kings, Ducks, and Red Wings. Despite being decent favorites, they’ve taken their last three games into extra time.
Both clubs are near-.500 teams since December 1 and outside the Top 15 in point percentage. Vegas has the advantage on special teams with the No.2 power play and the better penalty kill over that stretch.
This +155 price is saying that New Jersey would be the favorite in Vegas and I think that pricing is just wrong. Vegas has usually been an overvalued team, but this is a spot where the oddsmakers aren't giving the Knights much credit in what is their longest moneyline price on the road this year.
Golden Knights vs Devils Over/Under analysis
This game has seen substantial money on the Under. It opened at 6.5 and currently sits at 6 at most books with some places slow to adjust. Both clubs have been profitable to the Under on the season but New Jersey has been one of the best Over teams of late.
The Devils enter tonight with an 8-2 O/U across their last 10 games and have seen a closing total of 6.5 in five straight games and in eight of those 10 games. Since the restart, they are the third-highest scoring offense at 3.75 goals per game, seeing an average of 6.5 goals per game. The power play is also scoring at a Top-10 pace. There's a high probability of both teams scoring two goals tonight (-210).
The loss of Stone hurts the Knights’ top six, but it hurts them more defensively as he is one of the best defensive forwards in hockey. The Knights still have some solid offense in the top six and this is still a team that is missing two key defensemen in Shea Theodore and Zach Whitecloud.
Looking at goaltending, we could see a Logan Thompson vs. Vitek Vanecek. Thompson has a 2.95 GAA and a .899 SV% over his last 10 starts while Vanecek has seen six-goal games in seven of his last nine starts. Vanecek is playing above his career numbers of late however and isn’t a .925 save percentage goalie.
With the books split on where this game should close, I’m more interested in the Over 6 than the Under 6.5.
Golden Knights vs Devils betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Devils’ last five vs. Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs Devils.
Golden Knights vs Devils game info
|Location:||Prudential Center, Newark, NJ|
|Date:||Tuesday, January 24, 2023|
|Puck drop:||7:30 p.m. ET|