The push for first place in the West Division continues on Saturday as the Vegas Golden Knights and St. Louis Blues finish off a back-to-back set.
The Knights skated off with an OT win last night in a back-and-forth 5-4 victory. Saturday’s match should give way to each teams’ backup goalies.
Oddsmakers opened Saturday night’s contest as a pick ‘em with the total opening at 5.5 and trending upwards with backups projected to start.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Vegas Golden Knights vs St. Louis Blues for Saturday, March 13 (8:00 PM EST).
Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues betting preview
Injuries
Golden Knights: Alex Pietrangelo D (out), William Carrier F (questionable).
Blues: Jaden Schwartz F (out), Robert Thomas F (out), Ivan Barbashev F (out), Tyler Bozak F (out), Colton Parayko D (out), Oskar Sundqvist F (questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 13-3 in the Golden Knights’ last 16 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Blues.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVegas hit the FanDuel odds board as modest -116 chalk, initially dipped to -112, then rose to -124 a couple of times. As of 6 p.m. ET, the Golden Knights are -122 while taking 69 percent of moneyline bets and 70 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 5.5 (Over -124) and just moved to 6.5 (Under -134), with 86 percent of bets/93 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
It was an epic battle last night as two of the best teams in the West went toe-to-toe with the Golden Knights picking up the extra point in OT. Vegas blew a 3-1 lead and trailed in the third period before tying it up. The scoreboard tells a story of a close game, but statistically, it was all Vegas.
The Knights finished the game with 4.01 expected goals compared to the Blues’ 1.72 and out-chanced St. Louis nearly 4 to 1. If it weren’t for a likely-exhausted Marc-Andre Fleury (-2.24 goals saved above expected), this one could have been another Vegas cover.
One of the bigger stories heading into this two-game set was the defensive responsibility of St. Louis, who was short of quality centermen. Vegas took advantage of this and recorded four even-strength goals with all four lines getting in on the scoring.
The loss makes it three in a row for the Blues, who have gone to extra time in four straight. This is a team that is thin down the middle and facing the division's best team in Vegas.
St. Louis will likely turn to rookie goalie Ville Husso Saturday. Husso is 4-1 SU in his last five starts but owns a 3.00 GAA and a .892 SV%. It should be noted that all five of those games came against the division’s four worst teams. Husso will have to steal a game and we don’t like his chances against the balanced and speedy Golden Knights.
Vegas is 7-2 SU in its last nine games and will look to play better defensively with rookie goalie Logan Thompson likely to draw the start. There isn’t much tape on the young goalie who has just over eight minutes of NHL experience. This could work in the Knights’ favor as it gives the Blues less to study. The first-place Knights should step up for the youngster in his first NHL start.
Also in Vegas’ favor is the schedule. The Blues finished a six-game road trip before this home series and will be packing up their suitcases again Saturday night as they begin another six games on the road starting Monday in L.A. We’re riding the Knights for a second straight night.
PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-110)
Over/Under pick
Last night’s game hit the Over early in the third as the Knights and Blues combined for nine goals. If you’re expecting another shootout on Saturday, you could be holding a losing ticket by the end of the night. Both these clubs could easily rebound defensively and may need to with a pair of rookie goalies in net.
St. Louis’ Husso has hit the Under in his two most-recent starts and should get a team with an edge on Saturday, as coaches don’t like giving up five goals. We’d expect a very conservative approach offensively from St. Louis, with more emphasis on cutting down the Vegas chances, which was the biggest difference in last night’s contest.
Vegas held the Blues to under 2.00 expected goals but gave up two third-period power-play goals, which was quite uncharacteristic of one of the league’s best penalty-killers. As noted above, the Knights will be looking to give their likely rookie starter a win in his first NHL start and that will have to happen with attention to defensive detail.
Once these goalies are confirmed, we could see the total move to 6 as the public loves to fade back-up goalies, especially after a nine-goal game. The truth is, fading backups isn’t always the best route as teams change the way they play in front of different goaltenders.
We’re looking to hit this Under but think the best time to do so is just before puck drop and after the public has pushed the total up.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+100)
Golden Knights vs Blues betting card
- Vegas ML (-110)
- Under 5.5 (+100)
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