Capitals vs Bruins Picks: Fire Up The Overs

Apr 11, 2021 |
Capitals vs Bruins Picks: Fire Up The Overs
Boston just beat Washington 4-2 on Thursday, but the Capitals are in a prime spot to get revenge on Sunday with the Bruins playing on the second half of a traveling back-to-back.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Boston just beat Washington 4-2 on Thursday, but the Capitals are in a prime spot to get revenge on Sunday with the Bruins playing on the second half of a traveling back-to-back.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Capitals will look to avenge a 4-2 Thursday loss to the Boston Bruins Sunday night and keep pace in the tight East Division race.

Heading into the weekend, only two points separated first to third place while the fourth-place Bruins trailed the Capitals by eight points. A Boston win today would make this a true four-team race for the No. 1 seed.

Oddsmakers opened the Bruins as a slight -115 favorite, despite Boston playing the second game of a back-to-back. The total opened at a flat 5.5.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Washington Capitals vs Boston Bruins for Sunday, April 11 (7:00 p.m. ET).

Capitals vs Bruins odds

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Boston opened a modest -115 favorite Saturday evening at PointsBet USA and peaked at -120, then the moneyline jumped the fence to Washington -130 late this morning. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, the Capitals are -122. "Heavy action on the Capitals and the Over. Seventy-seven percent of moneyline bet count and 78 percent of moneyline handle on the Caps," PointsBet's Mike Korn said. The total hasn't moved off 5.5, and although the price went from Over -125 to -110 to -115, Korn said the Over is seeing more than 90 percent of tickets and money. "The book will need Bruins and the Under."

Check out the full line movement for this game

Capitals at Bruins betting preview

Injuries

Capitals: None to report.
Bruins: Tuukka Rask G (Out), Jaroslav Halak G (Out), Charlie McAvoy D (Questionable), Brandon Carlo D (Out), Matt Grzelcyk D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1-1 in the Capitals’ last 10 games playing on one day of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Bruins.

Moneyline pick

The Bruins enter Sunday’s game on the backend of a traveling back-to-back after losing 3-2 to the slumping Flyers yesterday. The loss pushes the Bruins’ record to 2-2 SU since they’ve been forced to play their third-and fourth-string goalies as Tuuka Rask (injury) and Jaroslav Halak (COVID) are out.

23-year-old Dan Vladar is the projected starter for the B’s Sunday and is 2-2 SU in his four starts this year. The young goalie has allowed three goals in each of his last two starts and stopped 48 of 54 shots (.889 save percentage) in those two matches. Vladar is the team’s No. 4 goalie for a Bruins team that is 5-5 SU over its last 10, so we aren’t very hot on Boston, even at -108.

The Bruins’ offense managed little to no scoring against one of the worst defensive teams in the Flyers yesterday, creating just 2.00 expected goals. The power play went 0 for 4 against the Flyers' 29th-ranked penalty kill and is now 1 for 10 over its last two games.

Washington did a great job of keeping the Boston big three off the scoresheet on Thursday as Brad Marchand’s shorty was the only goal scored by the trio of him, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak.

The Capitals get an opponent that will be playing its seventh game in 11 days and Washington can take sole possession of first place with a win. They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 road games and have taken one of the two games played in Boston this season.

Washington's power play will be a huge factor in this game as it had nine opportunities in the previous match-up and converted twice. The Caps have the league’s seventh-best PP at 24 percent and the Bruins are the most penalized team in the league—with their difficult schedule, some tired legs may be the cause of a few more infractions.

We’re expecting the visiting team to start Vitek Vanecek in net as the rookie is battling the inconsistent Ilya Samsonov for the No. 1 role and is coming off three strong starts that saw him go 2-1 SU and stop 90 of 95 shots (.947 SV%).

Facing a fourth-string goalie and a team that could use a day off, the Capitals at -112 gets our cash on Sunday evening.

PREDICTION: Washington ML (-112)

Over/Under pick

Saturday will be the sixth meeting between the two clubs this season and the Over has hit in all but one of the matches. Tuesday’s 4-2 game needed an empty netter to cash the Over but with 6.65 expected goals, it could have been an easy winner with a bounce or two. Even with the lack of offensive chances yesterday for the Bruins, these two teams bring the goals out in each other.

Last Thursday’s match-up saw a total of 15 power plays, a huge number considering the league average is around seven per game. These two teams don’t like each other and know that this could be a first-round playoff series. We’d expect another colorful game on Sunday with the penalty box being a popular place.

If the Capitals decide to roll out Samsonov, this would be a “bet-the-farm” Over for us. Samsonov has allowed 18 goals in his last four starts, with at least four getting past him in each game: He is fade material until further notice. We still like the Over with Vanecek in the net too though, as the Boston power play is bound to get rolling and the Washington goalie has allowed 12 goals in four starts against the boys from Beantown this season.

The Caps haven’t seen Vladar yet but he has enough tape out now after four NHL starts that Washington will know what to look for in the young goalie. Like starting pitchers and quarterbacks, NHL goalies don’t usually find success at an early age and are much more inconsistent.

The Bruins have been playing motivated hockey knowing they’re starting their third and fourth netminders, but that honeymoon is over and missing two Top-4 defensemen isn't going to help. Fire up the Overs.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

Capitals vs Bruins betting card

  • Washington ML (-112)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)

Picks made on 4/11/2021 at 9:58 a.m. ET

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