Xavier vs Creighton Odds, Picks and Predictions: Styles Make the Fight At the Mecca

The Creighton Bluejays will try to reach the Big East Tournament title game for the third straight year when they take on the Xavier Musketeers at Madison Square Garden on Friday night.

No. 24 Creighton has been red-hot on offense, scoring 84 points or more in each of its last three games. No. 15 Xavier has won four straight but needed to come from behind to get past DePaul in its quarterfinal.

Both teams are coming off high-scoring wins, and are lining up to play another shootout today. We’ll talk about how bettors should approach this game in our college basketball picks and predictions for Creighton vs. Xavier on March 10.

Xavier vs Creighton best odds

Xavier vs Creighton picks and predictions

In a conference filled with outstanding offensive teams, Xavier ranks among the best. The Musketeers were averaging 82.1 points per game, and are shooting 50% from the field this year. Even when Xavier struggled against DePaul, falling behind by as many as 13 points in the second half, it was offensive firepower that got the Musketeers back in the game while their defense allowed the Blue Demons to shoot 61.4% from the field. 

Creighton has no shortage of firepower, either. The Bluejays are averaging 76.8 points per game and have been blowing past that mark as of late. Creighton is averaging 90 points in its last three outings, including its 87-74 win over Villanova on Thursday. 

Both teams bring a variety of offensive weapons to overwhelm opponents. All five of Creighton’s starters average at least 12 points per game. Xavier lost a key contributor when Zach Freemantle suffered a foot injury in late January, but it still has four active players who are scoring in double figures this season. 

These aren’t teams that can be schemed to stop one player and shut down the entire offense, and that was on full display in the first game between these teams this season. On January 11, Xavier beat Creighton 90-87 at home, and a total of nine players scored in double figures while both teams shot 50% from the field and over 40% from 3-point range. 

The Bluejays found more success at home in the rematch, beating Xavier 84-67 later that month. Even that game featured eight players in double figures, and while the Musketeers struggled on offense relative to the first game, they still shot 48.4% on the night. The main problem for them was a 4-for-14 performance from beyond the arc. 

That’s about as bad a night as you’ll see Xavier have on offense this season, and it still resulted in a total of 151 points. At the moment, both of these teams are firing on all cylinders, meaning that all expectations are that they are primed for a shootout. 

Sportsbooks currently have the total set at around 152.5. In a vacuum, that feels like a big number. But the way that both of these teams are playing right now — as well as how we’ve seen them play against each other — suggests that this game should go above that number. 

I expect both teams to continue playing to form, so I’m taking the Over tonight.

My best bet: Over 152 (-108 at Pinnacle)

Xavier vs Creighton spread analysis

Xavier has gone 17-14-1 against the spread this year but has come up short against the number in its last two games. Creighton is a dead even 16-16 ATS on the season but has covered in each of its past three outings.

Despite their inferior record, most rating systems have the Bluejays as a slightly better team than the Musketeers this season. The biggest difference is on the defensive end of the court, where Creighton has put in better performances against Big East competition. The Bluejays have held opponents to a respectable 67.9 points per game, and are giving up just 0.959 points per possession.

Xavier is also dealing with the loss of a key player. Freemantle, a senior forward who scored 15.2 ppg and led the team in rebounding, will need foot surgery and won’t be back this season, despite earlier hopes that he might be able to play in the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers have continued to play well since then, but I have to think they’re at least a couple of points worse without Freemantle in the lineup.

That has me favoring Creighton in tonight’s game. With a modest spread, I’m happy to lay 3.5 points and back the Bluejays on the spread.

Xavier vs Creighton Over/Under analysis

The Over has been consistently coming in for Xavier this season, going 21-10-1 in Musketeers games. Creighton hasn’t shown any real bias to either side of the total, with the Under going 16-15-1 in its games. 

I don’t want to overreact to short-term trends, but both of these teams have been lighting up the scoreboard in recent days. Each team has hit the Over four consecutive times heading into Friday’s game. As I noted above, Creighton has been scoring 90 points per game in March, while Xavier has scored at least 78 points in each of its last four outings. 

Everything about this game is pointing directly toward the Over. I’ve looked for reasons to be contrarian here, as mindlessly following trends isn’t a substitute for real analysis. Obviously, these teams won’t hit the Over forever, as sportsbooks will adjust if they keep exceeding the number.

But there’s no reason to think the scoring barrage is going to stop tonight for two teams with dynamic offenses that have found success against each other already this season. The Over is the clear play in this game.

Xavier vs Creighton betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the last four games for both Creighton and Xavier. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. Creighton.

Xavier vs Creighton game info

Xavier vs Creighton key injuries

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