The Mountain West Championship takes place on Saturday, March 11 between the No. 3 seed Utah State Aggies and No. 1 seed San Diego State Aztecs.
Utah State downed Boise State 72-62 in the semifinals to advance despite trailing 36-28 at halftime.
San Diego State has advanced to the Mountain West tournament final in each of the last five seasons, coming away victorious twice.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Utah State vs. San Diego State.
Utah State vs San Diego State best odds
Utah State vs San Diego State picks and predictions
The tournament final between Utah State and San Diego State should be a good one between two very good teams. It’s always fun to watch a Cinderella run in tournaments — until it gets to the later rounds and that team becomes thoroughly outmatched.
That won’t be the case Saturday night at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, so buckle your seat belts. These two teams met in the tournament final in three straight seasons from 2019 to 2021. Utah State won the first two matchups while San Diego State won the third.
Ryan Odom’s second season in Logan has been a resounding success. The Aggies are likely in the field of 68 regardless of Saturday’s outcome but it’s close — Bracket Matrix currently lists them as an 11 seed and Joe Lunardi listed them as one of his “Last Four Byes”. Odom would obviously prefer to punch his ticket tonight rather than waiting around until Sunday to find out.
Backing Utah State has been one way to get rich this season. The Aggies are a superb 21-11 ATS overall this season and they are in fine form, covering each of their last seven games overall.
Utah State checks in at 23rd overall in KenPom — 12th in offensive efficiency and 86th in defensive efficiency. That’s eight spots lower than the Aztecs, who rank 15th in overall — 43rd in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency.
These teams met twice in the regular season with the Aztecs sweeping the series — 85-75 at home and 63-61 in Logan. Bracket Matrix lists San Diego State as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so its chances of going dancing are assured regardless of tonight’s outcome.
This is a very close game between two Top-25 teams from an analytical perspective. The numbers are close and slightly favor the Aztecs, and that shows in the betting market. Utah State has a slight motivational edge, given that its tournament chances are not secured, whereas San Diego State’s is safe.
The Aggies have thrived in neutral site games, going 16-5 ATS across their last 21 chances. The opposite can be said for the Aztecs, who are just 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
A lot of this handicap boils down to if Utah State can get hot from behind the arc. The Aggies rank second nationally in 3-point shooting at 40.4% en route to averaging 79.4 points per game. The Aztecs allow opponents to shoot 21.9 3-pointers per game (206th) but those shots have gone down at just 20.7% (14th).
San Diego State successfully guarded the 3-point line in each of the regular season matchups. Utah State found some success in the first matchup on 11-for-33 shooting but was just 5-19 in the second meeting. Combining those two games, the Aggies shot just 30.8% from behind the arc in the two prior meetings — nearly 10% below their season-long average.
The Aggies have found success in this building in the past, winning the 2019 and 2020 championships over the Aztecs at the Thomas & Mack Center. I’ll bet on Utah State’s 3-point shooting normalizing in the third matchup.
Give me the Aggies to cut down the nets in Vegas.
My best bet: Utah State moneyline (+115 at Pinnacle)
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Utah State vs San Diego State spread analysis
Utah State has won both of its tournament games by double-digit points. It first dispatched of New Mexico 91-76 in an impressive showing and then took down Boise State 72-62 in the semifinals.
The Aggies struggled in the first half against Boise State, shooting just 3-15 from behind the arc to fall behind by eight points at the break. They got hot from deep in the second half and went 6-14 on 3-pointers while winning the half 44-26.
San Diego State got all it could handle from Colorado State in the quarterfinals but prevailed to win a 64-61 nailbiter that was much closer than anticipated for the 9.5-point favorites than anticipated. The Aztecs then dominated San Jose State in the semifinals by a score of 64-49.
Matt Bradley (12.8 ppg) is the only player to average double figures for Dutcher’s squad. It’s mostly a committee approach, as seven players average between 6.4 and 9.7 ppg. The two standouts from that bunch are Nathan Mensah, a force on the interior defense, and Darrion Trammell, who leads the team in assists and is second in scoring and steals.
Utah State vs San Diego State Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 139 but quickly received a fair amount of money on the Under, pushing the number down a few points. Currently, the total ranges from 136.5 to 137.5 depending on the book.
Utah State has played to the Over this season at 19-12-1. That’s been especially true when the Aggies play on a neutral court, where they are 9-4 to the Over in their last 13.
San Diego State has been an Under team, notching a 17-14 record to the Under overall this season. The Aztecs have been on a tremendous run of low-scoring games, cashing seven straight Under tickets. They have been the total opposite of the Aggies in neutral site games, going 22-8 to the Under in their last 30 such games.
Recent history shows that this finals game tends to be low-scoring. Each of the last four championship games has failed to crack 137.5 points — often by a sizable margin. In those games, the average combined score has come out to 116.5, which is 21 points lower than the current number. I lean toward the Under given the recent trends in this conference title game.
Utah State vs San Diego State betting trend to know
Utah State is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. San Diego State.
Utah State vs San Diego State game info
| Conference: | Mountain West Final |
| Location: | Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas |
| Date: | Saturday, March 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
