Syracuse vs Miami Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defenses Can't Keep Up

Two former Big East rivals will face off on Monday night when the Syracuse Orange visit the No. 17 Miami Hurricanes in an ACC conference matchup.

The Orange are riding a two-game winning streak but will have to contend with a Hurricanes team that is a perfect 10-0 at home.

Can they keep their perfect record at home alive? We’ll break it down in our college basketball picks and predictions for Syracuse vs. Miami on January 16.

Syracuse vs Miami best odds

Syracuse vs Miami picks and predictions

It’s hard to know what to make of this Syracuse team. It’s certainly not one of Jim Boeheim’s vintage Orange squads. Yet the same team that lost games to Colgate and Bryant — both at home — earlier this season is now 5-2 in ACC play. We’re still a long way from looking at Syracuse as a potential NCAA Tournament team, but it may not be quite as poor as its earlier season results suggest.

There are a lot fewer questions around Miami. The Hurricanes may be coming off an 83-81 loss to the North Carolina State Wolfpack, but they remain near the top of the ACC standings, also with a 5-2 record in the conference. Miami has already posted strong wins against the likes of the Providence Friars and the Virginia Cavaliers. 

The Hurricanes have jumped out to a fast start behind an efficient offense that shoots 48.5% from the field. Junior guard Isaiah Wong leads the way with 17.2 points per game, while Jordan Miller (14.9 ppg) and Norchad Omier (13.9 ppg) are also key contributors for a Miami offense that has four players averaging double figures.

That will present a challenge for a Syracuse zone defense that, while capable of making big plays, once again isn’t the best example of what Boeheim has produced in his 47-year career.

Opponents are putting up 69.7 ppg against the Orange, a number that looks even worse when you consider they play at a fairly slow pace. Ken Pomeroy ranks Syracuse 130th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, not the mark of a team that can contain the Hurricanes.

The question then becomes whether the Orange can keep up with Miami in a potential shootout. Syracuse has been able to play in higher-tempo games from time to time, beating the Virginia Tech Hokies 82-72 last Wednesday. It has its own pair of high-scoring guards, between senior Joe Girard III (16.7 ppg) and freshman Judah Mintz (15.6 ppg). 

The Orange should be able to score against the Hurricanes as well. Miami’s defense is far from spectacular, allowing opponents to put up 69.4 points a night. While the Hurricanes have the edge in scoring prowess, both of these teams will be able to find opportunities to put up points throughout the night.

That has me targeting the total in this matchup. While a total near 150 looks scary for two teams that don’t generally run the court, both have played to higher totals before, and this looks like a golden opportunity for both offenses to shine. I’ll be taking the Over at 149.5, which is the lowest main line number available as of midday Monday. 

My best bet: Over 149.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Syracuse vs Miami spread analysis

Miami opened tonight’s game as a seven-point favorite. That line remains largely unchanged, though a couple of sites have moved it up to Syracuse +7.5. The Orange are 9-9 against the spread this season, while Miami is 10-7 ATS.

Initially, I thought laying the points with Miami might be the best bet for this game, but Syracuse’s recent play has me questioning whether I want to give seven to this Orange squad.

While I still expect the Hurricanes to win tonight, we have to pay attention to the fact that Syracuse only lost to Virginia by seven on the road earlier this month, and has generally played close games all season long — with the exception of its blowout loss to Illinois in November.

If I had to play the spread, Miami would still be my pick. There’s no doubt it's the better team, especially at home. On the other hand, a number of teams have come close to toppling the Hurricanes on their home court, including a surprising Cornell Big Red squad that pushed Miami to the limit in a 107-105 shootout.

In the end, I’ll be staying off the spread in this game tonight, even if Syracuse’s inconsistent results make me think Miami is the smart play. I’d rather focus on the total than try to guess which Orange team will show up on the road against a Top 20 team.

Syracuse vs Miami Over/Under analysis

The total tonight opened at a flat 150 points, and most books are still around this mark. However, you can find 149.5 with no juice if you want to play the Over, while other sites are offering 150.5 if you like the Under, so be sure to shop around a bit.

I broke down why I like the Over in my best bet section above, but there are other reasons to think this will be a high-scoring affair. The Orange have been playing faster and scoring more as of late, with the Over hitting six straight times now in Syracuse games. This may be a sign of a changing dynamic for the Orange that the books haven’t yet caught up to.

Miami’s recent performance doesn’t really sway me one way or another on this total. It's hit the Over exactly four times in its last eight, and the totals have been all over the place — ranging from a 66-64 win over Virginia (130 total points) to that 212-point outburst against Cornell.

As I said earlier, the key thing for me is that I expect Miami to score against the Syracuse defense. That will force the Orange to keep pace, and at least lately, they’ve been able to do that with most opponents. The Over is the play, and I like getting it in at 149.5 if possible.

Syracuse vs Miami betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Syracuse’s last six games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Syracuse vs. Syracuse.

Syracuse vs Miami game info

Syracuse vs Miami key injuries

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