The South Carolina Gamecocks and Maryland Terraapins will meet Friday night in College Park in a game that highlights the opening week of women's college basketball.
The defending National Champions comes into another season with aspirations sky high. They are ranked No. 1 once again and very much looked the part in their opening night win against East Tennessee State. They put up over 100 points and allowed just 31 in a game with six double-digit scorers. It's no shock that college basketball odds have them favored tonight.
The Terraapins also comes into this matchup ranked and will be looking to pull off a reasonably colossal upset. They, too, opened their season with an impressive victory. However, this one came against George Mason by 37 points.
What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free betting picks for South Carolina vs. Maryland.
South Carolina vs Maryland best odds
| South Carolina | Maryland | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -295 | +245 |
| Spread | -8.5 (-110) | +8.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 136 (-105) | Over 136 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on November 11.
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South Carolina vs Maryland picks and predictions
It can be argued, but for my money, South Carolina is the most talented team in college basketball because of its diversity in scoring. I mentioned that the win over ETSU featured six double-digit scorers, and while that's clearly an outliner, it speaks to that diversity. In addition, the Gamecocks have decisive advantages at multiple places on the court. So I don't expect this one to be close.
The first thing that jumps out is what the Gamecocks do on the offensive backboard to create second-chance scores. Last season it was a pillar of their offense: they ranked in the 95th percentile among all teams in offensive rebounding per Synergy. That metric was led by Aliyah Boston, who is back for her Senior season and opened her campaign with an 11-point, 11-rebound showing.
This is a problem for Maryland and maybe the most notable of any. You're already at a talent disparity, and you can't afford to allow second-chance points. However, I'm not sure what it can do to stop it. It graded out as an average defensive rebounding team a season ago and average defensively on putbacks — allowing opponents to shoot 53% around the rim.
My assessment of its roster says it has yet to do a ton to address this. At least to where it will show up this early in the season. The Gamecocks' prowess on the offensive glass indicates the larger theme you'll likely see throughout the game.
A season ago, South Carolina's size was the focal point of its offense, and if it wasn't shooting jumpers off a screen, it was posting up. It scored .90 points per possession on postups, which ranked in the Top 25% of college basketball. I don't expect that to change. The aforementioned Aliyah Boston was one of the best post scorers in the country, along with her will be Kamilla Cardoso, who wasn't far behind.
That one two-punch will be far too much for Maryland to handle at the end of the day. It wasn't attacked much in the post last season, but it wasn't good when it happened. The Terrapins gave up 51% shooting on post-up sets, which was one of the worst rates in Power Five hoops.
It may seem overwhelmingly negative about Maryland, and I'm not necessarily trying to be. The Terrapins have some significant defensive flaws that I wonder if they've sewed up from a season ago. South Carolina is a very poor matchup for them. I expect it to physically dominate them around the rim en route to a blowout win.
My best bet: South Carolina -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
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South Carolina vs Maryland spread analysis
I expect South Carolina to dominate this game primarily throughout. I've illustrated why above, but it's mostly because I expect Maryland to be physically dominated. The overall size it'll put on the court is too much.
At any given time in this game, you'll have either 6-foot-7 Kamilla Cardoso or 6-foot-4 Aliyah Boston on the floor. At times, they'll play both, and again, it becomes a size game. Maryland has one player over 6-foot-2 on its roster.
It's easy to see why it was dominated on the glass a season ago. Unfortunately for the Terraapins, that happens to be one of the best attributes of the Gamecock dream. Even though they have a pretty good host of jump shooters in Zia Cooke and Malaysia Cooper, they can overcome this on the backboard if they have a poor shooting night.
One of the ways we evaluate a spread in college basketball is to use plenty of metrics to answer one question. How many ways can this team win? South Carolina has ample more ways to win tonight than Maryland.
South Carolina vs Maryland Over/Under analysis
I've made it apparent that South Carolina will score in bulk and do enough to cover. After that, the question arises: can Maryland score enough to push this Over the total?
In a sentence, it's hard to answer that without seeing what things look like early.
Maryland has an excellent offense, and last season one of the best aspects of it was its cutting along with spot-up sets. Maryland will have to hit many threes to stay in contact here. Because of that, the variance of what this total could finish at is increased in a big way.
I'm looking at anecdotal things like confidence and attitude early on to see if Maryland can score enough to help this total go Over. I'm also looking at particular things, one of the few places to get this South Carolina defense is attacking it via cutters. Synergy graded it out as average there a season ago, and the Terraapins has success scoring off of these sets.
If they find that backdoor scoring early, I'll be inclined to grab some in-game Over. Otherwise, I'll stay away.
South Carolina vs Maryland betting trend to know
South Carolina has lost one regular season basketball game over the past calendar year. Find more College basketball betting trends for South Carolina vs. Maryland.
South Carolina vs Maryland game info
| Location: | Xfinity Center, College Park, Maryland |
| Date: | Friday, November 11, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
