The Gonzaga Bulldogs try to bounce back from a tough overtime loss as they welcome the San Francisco Dons to the McCarthey Athletic Center on Thursday night.
This has been a disappointing season for the Zags who haven't looked like the national title contenders they were expected to be and they barely edged the Dons when these teams previously clashed last month.
Oddsmakers expect a more lopsided victory in Spokane with betting lines opening with the Zags as 14.5-point favorites. Here my best San Francisco vs. Gonzaga college basketball betting picks and predictions for February 9.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga best odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga picks and predictions
To say that the Bulldogs have underachieved this season would be an understatement. They entered the season at -1,600 to win their 11th WCC Championship in a row, but after losing to St. Mary's on Saturday will have an uphill climb to catch the Gaels for first place.
They also lost to Loyola Marymount at home while also barely squeaking by Santa Clara, BYU, and San Francisco in away contests.
This is a Gonzaga team that is just 7-20-2 against the spread in its last 29 games overall while going 6-14-3 ATS in its previous 23 contests at home. The Zags still have plenty of firepower on offense and shoot the ball well, but they don't get as many easy buckets in transition and have really struggled defensively.
Gonzaga is 285th in the country in scoring defense (73.4 ppg) and 248th in opponent field goal percentage (44.5%) with those numbers bumping up to 76.1 ppg and 46.5 FG% in conference play. That leaky defense was on full display when these teams met up in San Francisco on January 5, with the Dons jumping out to an early lead that they didn't relinquish until the final minute.
Another factor that makes it tough for the Bulldogs to cover massive spreads is that they don't close out well on perimeter shooters and have been woeful at the charity stripe — shooting just 68.9%.
The Dons lead all WCC schools in 3-pointers made per game in conference play while ranking third in 3-point percentage (38.1%). They should be able to able to take advantage of a Zags team that allows WCC opponents to shoot 38.3% from long range.
That means that even if Gonzaga is able to jump out to a sizable lead, the Dons should be able to pull off the backdoor cover by fouling and taking a high volume of three-pointers.
My best bet: San Francisco +14 (-105 at DraftKings)
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San Francisco vs Gonzaga spread analysis
After losing to St. Mary's 78-70 on Saturday, the Bulldogs are two games behind the Gaels for first place in the WCC standings with an 8-2 mark.
While they have been winning games against most conference opponents it hasn't been the typical domination we've come to expect from Mark Few's squad.
Gonzaga was at +1,200 to win the national title earlier in the season, but after some shaky performances in conference play has dropped all the way to +2,800 on the March Madness futures board.
The Zags are still extremely efficient with the ball and rank seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They lead the nation in field goal percentage (51%) against Div 1 foes while ranking 20th in 3-point percentage (38.1%), and 25th in turnover rate (15.3%).
Four players on Gonzaga are averaging double digits in scoring led by Drew Timme who averages 21.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game on 60.2% shooting from the floor.
The Dons are coming off back-to-back defeats, most recently losing 83-70 to Santa Clara last weekend. Since falling to the Zags in a nail-biter last month, San Francisco has gone 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS.
The Dons have been fairly pedestrian on both sides of the floor, ranking 108th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 107 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
There aren't many areas where the Dons really struggle but there also aren't any categories where they stand out. Out of 10 teams in the WCC, the Dons rank seventh in field goal percentage (45.2%), third in opponent field goal percentage (44.6%), and sixth in rebounding margin (-1.6) in conference play.
Khalil Shabazz leads the Dons in points (16.0), assists (3.0) and steals (2.1) per game. His backcourt partner Tyrell Roberts adds 15.2 ppg on 44/40/83 shooting splits.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga Over/Under analysis
When these teams met up last month, the total was set at 157.5 and these sides combined for 152 points. We're seeing a slightly lower total this time around but 155.5 is still a hefty number. Given Gonzaga's fast-paced, high-scoring, lax-defense style that big total is understandable.
The Zags lead the country with 84.2 ppg against Div 1 foes and have bumped that number up to 86.5 ppg in conference play. That said, they also surrender 76.1 ppg to WCC opponents.
The WCC tends to feature plenty of high-scoring contests, and while the Dons are just second-last in the conference in scoring against WCC foes, 73.9 ppg is not a small number.
Both of these teams tend to play at a faster pace with the Dons 62nd in the country in adjusted tempo and the Zags 42nd.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Bulldogs are 5-18-3 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga game info
| Location: | McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, February 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
