The Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-9) have won five of the last six Bedlam meetings. To improve on that, the Cowboys will have to get by an Oklahoma Sooners (12-9) team fresh off an impressive 93-69 demolition of No. 4 Alabama. The Sooners seek revenge after falling 72-56 in the initial matchup this season on January 18.
Which team will come out on top this time around? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma on Wednesday, February 1 to find out.
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma best odds
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
No game in the Big 12 is easy. The league is simply too deep and chock-full of quality teams for there to be much respite. Wednesday’s matchup in Norman should be no exception in a game between two teams with identical 12-9 records that rank within KenPom’s Top 40.
Oklahoma State checks in at 35th in KenPom, ranking 121st in adjusted offensive efficiency, and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. Scoring has seemed to be a Herculean task at times for the Cowboys, who average just 68.6 ppg. They rank 199th in two-point shooting (50.6%) and 264th in 3-point shooting (32.6%), struggling to find consistency from anywhere on the court.
Their stellar defense surrenders just 63.1 ppg while ranking fifth in two-point defense (42.7%) and 26th in 3-point defense (29.8%). Grabbing rebounds is another strength of Michael Boynton’s squad, as they rank 83rd nationally while grabbing 37 rebounds per game for a +3.0 rebounding differential over their opponents.
Oklahoma ranks 38th in KenPom, checking in at 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency. While not having an elite unit a la Oklahoma State’s defense, the Sooners are a more well-rounded team overall.
The offense has been effective from the field, shooting 54.4% on two-point attempts (51st nationally) and 36.7% on 3-pointers (56th) while averaging 68.5 ppg. Getting to the line has been an issue, as the Sooners rank just 343rd in free-throw attempts per game with 14.1. The defense thrives off shutting down the 3-point line, ranking 16th nationally while allowing just 29.3% of shots from behind the arc to land home.
The Cowboys did win the first matchup in Stillwater convincingly, but I doubt we see a repeat performance. They’re just 2-5 in away games this season, while the Sooners are 7-4 at home. Boynton’s squad is still looking for its first road win in the Big 12 after an 0-4 start in conference play.
Oklahoma is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games following a straight-up win, and confidence should be at an all-time high following a 24-point win over a very good Alabama team.
My best bet: Oklahoma -3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma spread analysis
The spread is currently set at Oklahoma -3.5 across the board. The line opened at -3, jumped to -4 for a short while, then settled at -3.5. There are currently a few juiced -3.5 options, so it’s possible the line moves back in Oklahoma’s favor after the impressive showing against Alabama.
Oklahoma State has struggled in road games, going 2-5 ATS. The Cowboys’ only two covers on the road have come against teams from an inferior conference (Oakland, Wichita State), making them 0-5 ATS in away games against teams from a power conference. Going back to last season, they’re just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with winning home records.
Oklahoma is led by Nevada transfer Grant Sherfield, who averages 17.0 ppg, and also leads the team with 3.4 apg. Coming off a 30-point showing against a tough Alabama defense, Sherfield is in fine form heading into this revenge game.
Forwards Jalen Hill and Tanner Groves are the other two Sooners averaging double figures. Hill had 26 points against the Tide, while Groves posted 14 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks, and a steal, indicating both are in prime form at present.
The home team has dominated this series, going 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings. Another welcoming trend for Oklahoma bettors is that the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis
After opening at 129.5, the total has moved up to 130.5 at most locations. Be sure to shop around, as 129.5 and 131.5 are both available as of Wednesday morning.
Both teams have played toward the Under this season. Oklahoma State is 12-8-1 to the Under, while Oklahoma is 11-10. That shouldn’t come as much surprise considering the Cowboys’ identity is derived from its fearsome defensive play, while Oklahoma slows the game down to a halt when it possesses the ball.
Don’t expect much pace in this contest. The Sooners rank 316th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Porter Moser’s squad likes to use up as much of the shot clock as possible on nearly every possession. The Sooners may be very slow – 336th in field-goal attempts per game with 53.0 – but they’re also very efficient, hitting 48.2% of their attempts (22nd).
The Cowboys’ elite defense may be able to limit some of that efficiency. They held the Sooners to 56 points and 41.1% shooting in the first matchup, and while that may not be repeatable, it’s a sign that they can slow down their rival. Don’t expect Oklahoma State to play with any special pace either, as they rank 176th in adjusted tempo.
I could only look at the Under and lean in that direction as long as the line is 130.5 or above.
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The home team is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma game info
|Location:||Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK|
|Date:||Wednesday, February 1, 2023|
|Tip-off:||9:00 p.m. ET|