Notre Dame vs Virginia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Dunn Carries Cavaliers to Victory

The Virginia Cavaliers will be out for revenge on Wednesday night when the Hoos welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to John Paul Jones Arena.  Our college basketball odds have Virginia favored to win by double-digits.

Notre Dame pulled off a shocking 22-point win over Virginia the last time these teams met just before the calendar flipped to 2024. The Irish led by 17 at the break as they made seven 3-pointers in the opening 20 minutes.

They also dominated the glass and had by far their most explosive offensive performance of the season, but they’ve now lost six of seven since that victory.

Virginia’s loss was one of four it suffered in a six-game span, all of which came away from home, but the Hoos have won four on the trot, and are coming off a 17-point blowout over at Louisville. They'll look to extend the nation’s best home winning streak to 22 games, and exact revenge upon the Irish. 

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Virginia dive into tonight’s matchup and explain why one player in particular is likely to have more of a say in the rematch.

Notre Dame vs Virginia best odds

Notre Dame vs Virginia picks and predictions

In that first meeting, Virginia Cavaliers guard Ryan Dunn picked up two fouls in the first half which forced him to sit the final 8:34 of the period. He then picked up his third foul just 17 seconds after halftime. That contributed to him playing just 24 minutes, during which he grabbed only five rebounds to go along with his 13 points.

Dunn has hauled in double-digit rebounds in each of the previous two contests and followed up his poor showing against the Irish by snagging 10 in a win over Louisville. He’s had 7+ rebounds in six of the seven games since that shocking loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Rebounding was a key part of that defeat. Virginia was outrebounded 40-27 in the loss, as the Irish grabbed 10 offensive boards against just 17 defensive rebounds for the visitors, but it’s also important to remember the Irish shot 51% from the floor, which limited the number of rebounds available on that end of the floor. 

Tony Bennett is sure to hammer home the fact his team must be more assertive on the glass in the rematch, but the Irish will also have to contend with Jordan Minor, who has become the starting center over the past month. He played just eight minutes in that game but has since become a solidifying force who has improved the defense.

One area Minor is helping with is perimeter defense. His ability to manage alone in the middle has allowed Virginia to stay at home on perimeter shooters and therefore lets the guards be in a better position to rebound as opposed to scrambling on rotations. Minor had his breakout game against Virginia Tech, and the Hoos haven’t lost since.

And few players have benefited more from that than Dunn. Over that four-game winning streak, the 6-foot-8 guard has averaged 10 rebounds per game and has managed to stay out of foul trouble. He also had six blocks in the overtime win over NC State, with 11 blocks over his last three contests. 

Dunn has a team-leading 21.4 rebounding percentage, easily the best on the team. It’s hard to see Notre Dame — which ranks 302nd in effective FG% and 322nd in 3-point percentage this season — coming anywhere close to the outlier performance it had in the first meeting, which means even more opportunities for him to crash the boards.

I love him to snag 8+ rebounds tonight against a woeful Notre Dame team with an effective FG% rate of under 46% over its last two games. I love even more that bet365 is giving us +115 odds for him to reach that mark. 

My best bet: Ryan Dunn Over 7.5 rebounds (+115 at bet365)

Notre Dame vs Virginia same-game parlay

Ryan Dunn Over 7.5 rebounds

Ryan Dunn Over 10.5 points

Virginia alternate spread -9.5

+450 at bet365

Even with foul trouble in the first showdown, Dunn finished with 13 points as he made six of his nine attempts. He’s scored in double figures in five of his last eight games, and the other three saw him take exactly four shots in each. 

Dunn’s taken 10 shots in each of his last two games, scoring 22 points in the process. His effective FG% is the best among all Virginia starters.

I’m also taking Virginia to win by double digits. The spread right now is around 13 points, and I worry about a Notre Dame backdoor cover. They tend to get garbage-time points in recent losses to narrow the gap, so we’ll simply back the Hoos to win by 10+.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Notre Dame vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

As we just discussed, the spread on Wednesday morning is either -12.5 or -13 in favor of Virginia. There’s been no real movement overnight, aside from a brief spell where DraftKings had the line shift to -13.5 before coming back.

Notre Dame has failed to cover in three of its last four but is 5-3 ATS in its last eight. That includes a 22-point win over Virginia in which the Irish were 9.5-point underdogs. Notre Dame has lost four straight and six of its last seven outright. 

As we just discussed, I’m not fond of this spread and I’d personally lean Notre Dame to cover. I have Virginia winning by 10 or more, but 13 is a lot of points to lay in a low-scoring affair and I worry about garbage time leading to a backdoor cover for the Irish. 

Virginia’s covered in three of its last four with one push, all as favorites. The Irish are also 5-1-1 in their last seven ATS as favorites. They’ve covered in each of their last four at home, covering in all three games in which they were favored by 9+ points.

The total for this game is fairly low at 115.5 but it’s seen movement after opening at 114.5 on Tuesday night. It’s pushed up to 116 flat at multiple places.

Notre Dame’s been an Under machine. Four straight games have gone Under for the Irish, as have eight of its last 10. They’ve scored 61 or fewer points in six of its last seven, with only a win over Georgia Tech being the outlier. Their team total Under has also been quite profitable, going 22-8 over its last 30 games. 

Virginia’s solid defense and average scoring have led to four Unders in its last five contests. The Hoos have held three of their last four opponents to 57 points or less. Virginia’s 21-game home winning streak has also seen the first-half total go Under on 16 occasions. 

Both of these defenses rank in the Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and neither team sends their opponents to the line very often. These teams also are tied for 320th in free throw rate, which is why I’d lean Under here. However, I’m hoping for some early scoring so I can grab a better number live.

Notre Dame vs Virginia betting trend to know

The first-half total Under is 16-5 in Virginia’s last 21 games at home (+11.4 units / 47% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Virginia.

Notre Dame vs Virginia game info

Notre Dame vs Virginia key injuries

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