North Carolina vs Indiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Dominates in Bloomington

Two lackluster 3-point shooting teams will continue to struggle from beyond the arc in a tight battle between two of the best defenses in the country. Find out more in our North Carolina vs. Indiana betting picks.

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2022 7:18 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
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Wednesday brings us the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and we have a stellar contest when No. 17 ranked North Carolina meets No. 10 Indiana at historic Assembly Hall. 

North Carolina enters this matchup hoping to end a two-game losing streak, while Indiana defeated Jackson State for its sixth consecutive victory. 

Find out where the betting edge lies for this one in our free college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Indiana on November 30.

North Carolina vs Indiana best odds

North Carolina vs Indiana picks and predictions

North Carolina is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Alabama that went to a fourth OT, where it shot 7-23 from downtown and lost the battle of the glass 58-54. Knocking down triples has been an issue thus far for the Tar Heels, and shooting 30% from beyond the arc isn’t going to cut the mustard against Indiana at Assembly Hall.

The Tar Heels have one of the most experienced teams in the college game. Still, Armando Bacot is still nursing an ankle injury, and having their best rebounder and second-leading scorer less than 100% isn’t ideal for a side with rebounding issues. 

Indiana is one of the favorites to win the Big Ten and is off to a 6-0 start, primarily against teams ranked 255th or worse at KenPom. The Hoosiers are second in the nation in effective field goal percentage, and while they don’t shoot many from long range, they knock down 38% of the triples they take. Indiana is all about ball movement, cutting, and getting to the line, and the Hoosiers are knocking down 72% from the free throw line. 

Indiana is also experienced and seems to be injury free. Indiana is 127th in rebounding but seventh in assists, mostly against inferior teams. The Hoosiers are one of the best defensive sides in the country, allowing just 59.5 points per game. 

Both sides play at just above the national average tempo. While they may get enough possessions to exceed the total, neither school shoots the ball well enough from beyond the arc. We’ll likely see quite a few “dare you” zone defenses looking to entice bricks, and the shooters will probably accommodate the defenses.

Indiana opponents make just 50% of their two-point shots and will go head to head with where North Carolina offense lives. Without a healthy Bacot, the Tar Heels will have a hard time scoring.

Meanwhile, North Carolina plays better-than-average defense, and Indiana won’t get as many bunnies as it's enjoyed thus far. That should keep the Hoosiers from their 88-point average, and that is why I'm ultimately banking on this game going Under 145.5 points. 

My best bet: Under 145.5 (-118 at BetVictor)

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North Carolina vs Indiana spread analysis

The Tar Heels are coming off two consecutive losses, but I’m leaning toward North Carolina covering the +6.5 spread.

North Carolina was ranked No. 1 in the preseason and is one of the most experienced teams in the country. The Tar Heels have made significant individual efforts but haven’t played well as a unit. Losing in four OTs to Alabama must’ve stung, but that type of experience might help them on Wednesday night in what should be a raucous Assembly Hall atmosphere.

Guards R.J. Davis and Caleb Love have enjoyed solid shooting from beyond the arc over their collegiate careers but are shooting under 30% from downtown. They’ll get plenty of looks against the Hoosiers' zone defense. If the duo catches fire, this game could be kept close throughout.

Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis spurned the NBA Draft and returned for his final season. He’s their best player, averaging nearly a double-double and shooting an incredible 72% from the field. Slow down Jackson-Davis, slow down the Hoosiers.

The Tar Heels are the better rebounding side and allow just 41% shooting from the field. Indiana gets shots up quickly, and a few misses turned into transition breaks will help the Tar Heels keep this one close enough to cover the spread. 

North Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS, and Indiana is 4-1-1 ATS this season.  

North Carolina vs Indiana Over/Under analysis

I’ve already shared why Under 145.5 is my best bet, but here are some additional notes. North Carolina deploys a tight, seven-man rotation, and Indiana went eight deep in their two-point victory over Xavier. This contest will be fast-paced as both sides jack up shots early in the clock, and I expect some tired legs and plenty of bricks in an intense affair. 

North Carolina shoots 75% from the charity stripe, but can it hit that mark in front of a boisterous Assembly Hall crowd? North Carolina is a foul-happy side, but the Hoosiers may not be able to take advantage of this as they're currently shooting just 71% from the line.

North Carolina ranks 50th in offensive efficiency, and Indiana comes in just outside the Top 10 (11th). Indiana ranks second in offensive efficiency, but this will be the best team and challenge the Hoosiers have faced thus far.

The Over is 3-4 through the Tar Heels' first seven games and 4-2 in Indiana's six games.

North Carolina vs Indiana betting trend to know

The Tar Heels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more College basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Indiana.

North Carolina vs Indiana game info

Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Date: Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Tip-off: 9:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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