Marquette vs St. John's Odds, Picks and Predictions: Count on Lots of Two-Way Scoring

The top-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles will begin their Big East Tournament journey on Thursday when they battle the St. John’s Red Storm at Madison Square Garden.

St. John’s (18-14) reached the second round of the conference tournament by knocking off the Butler Bulldogs 76-63 on Wednesday. No. 6 Marquette (25-6) finished with a 17-3 record in conference play, and has won 11 of its last 12.

The Red Storm play at one of the fastest paces in the country, while the Golden Eagles boast one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. We’ll talk about what that means for Thursday’s game in our college basketball picks and predictions for St. John’s vs. Marquette on March 9.

Marquette vs St. John's best odds

Marquette vs St. John's picks and predictions

Few teams in the country have been more impressive this year than Marquette. The Golden Eagles have been the class of the Big East, and have a marquee non-conference win with a 96-70 victory over the Baylor Bears back in November.

Marquette has gotten to the Top 10 via its outstanding offensive production. Sophomore guard Kam Jones (15.3 ppg) leads an offense that’s putting up 81 points per game on 49.5% shooting. KenPom.com rates the Golden Eagles as having the fourth-most-efficient offense in the country, and on a per-possession basis, Marquette ranks ninth, scoring 1.121 points each time it has the ball.

St. John’s can’t claim to match Marquette’s offensive talent. Yet the Red Storm still score 77.6 points per game, due to the fact that they play at one of fastest paces in the entire country. They average 76.2 possessions per game, good for sixth in the nation. Senior center Joel Soriano is putting up 15.2 points and 11.8 rebounds per contest, one of seven St. John’s players averaging at least 8.7 points. 

Neither of these teams plays particularly well on defense, and when you take into account how much they’re scoring and the pace at which they play, both squads tend to play to big totals. When they’ve played each other this year, things have gone completely off the rails.

In the first meeting at St. John’s back on January 3, the Golden Eagles walked away with a 96-85 win. The teams topped that total when they played again in Marquette, where the home team escaped with a 96-94 victory.

For those keeping score at home, that’s a total of 190 points, achieved without overtime or any other special circumstances. Even in the first game, these two teams combined for 181 points, a massive total for most college basketball matchups.

Yet the total on Thursday’s game sits at a relatively reasonable 161.5. Make no mistake: that’s one of the highest Over/Under numbers you’re going to see in college basketball all season long. But it seems far too low given that these teams haven’t come anywhere near that figure in their first two games. 

It would be one thing if those games were flukes compared to the rest of the season. But St. John’s has gone over a 161.5 total in four of its last nine games, while Marquette has done so three times in its last six outings. These are teams that score early, score often, and virtually never stop. 

If it isn’t obvious yet, I’m taking the Over here. I would even consider selling some more points to improve your odds, though the safest bet is taking the total at 161.5. 

My best bet: Over 161.5 (-105 at WynnBET)

Marquette vs St. John's spread analysis

Marquette opened today’s game as a 6.5-point favorite. That’s the consensus line overnight, though you can find St. John’s +7 at some sites.

The Golden Eagles have been good for bettors this year, with Marquette going 19-11-1 against the spread on the season. St. John’s has been a more pedestrian 14-18 ATS on the year.

Marquette is undoubtedly the better team in this matchup, and has been playing well down the stretch. Typically, the fact that we expect a high-scoring game should make the favorite a bit more likely to cover as well, since the difference between these teams should show over the higher number of possessions. 

Yet we’ve already seen the Red Storm hang with Marquette once this year. That game took place just Saturday, when St. John’s lost by just two points at Marquette.

That number is misleading, however. The Golden Eagles had a 10-point lead with just 29 seconds left, before the Red Storm nearly won after a frantic comeback. 

When we keep that in mind, Marquette again looks like the clear favorite here, and on a neutral court, it should be able to cover. I’m taking the Golden Eagles minus the points.

Marquette vs St. John's Over/Under analysis

The total on today’s game opened at 162 points. That number has come down only slightly, with most books now offering up 161.5 as the Over/Under.

The entire world knows that both of these teams play high-scoring basketball, yet they have still managed to play to the Over on the season. The Over is 16-15-1 in St. John’s games, and has gone 17-13-1 when the Golden Eagles play. Naturally, this includes a 2-0 record for the Over when these two teams have played this season.

St. John’s has been particularly prone to playing into shootouts against better teams. This makes sense, as while the Red Storm can score, they run into trouble when they give the ball back to quality opposition so many times in a game. This shows in the two games against Marquette, where both the Red Storm and the Golden Eagles shot over 50% on both occasions. 

This is going to be one of the more entertaining shootouts we see in college basketball all year. Buckle up, watch the action unfold, and take the Over in a game that’s more likely to see a team hit the century mark than for this game to end up with a total below 161.5.

Marquette vs St. John's betting trend to know

The Over is 6-2 in the Red Storm’s last eight games against teams with winning percentages above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. St. John's.

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