No. 6 Texas looks to deal No. 2 Baylor its first loss of the campaign. The Bears have been remarkable all season, but their biggest test of the year awaits, as it will not be easy for them to come away with a win at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas.
This gigantic game will tip Tuesday, February 2 at 7:00 p.m. ET, and you’re not going to want to sit on the sidelines for this college basketball betting matchup. With that, keep reading for our Baylor vs. Texas picks and predictions.
Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Baylor: F Tristan Clark (out)
Texas: C Jericho Sims (questionable), G Courtney Ramey (questionable)
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 11-5 in Texas’ last 16 games in which the team is coming off a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Texas.
NCAAB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonBaylor opened -5.5 Monday night at FanDuel, dipped to -4.5 for an hour or so this morning, then returned to -5.5, where the line remains at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Bears are taking 78 percent of spread bets and 70 percent of spread money. The total opened at 144.5 and ticked down to 144 several times before rising to 145.5 mid-morning and sticking there. The Over is landing 77 percent of bets/78 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
Baylor is right there with Gonzaga as one of the best teams in college basketball, and the numbers certainly back that up. On the year, the Bears are third in the nation in both adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats according to KenPom.com) and adjusted defensive efficiency. This is just a group that knows how to get the job done on both ends of the floor. However, Texas is pretty similar. The Longhorns aren’t quite as good at ether aspect of the game, but they are 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency. And they also happen to be playing this game at home.
Unlike Gonzaga, it’s extremely unlikely that Baylor will skate through the regular season without a loss, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if this is where the winning streak comes to an end. While the Bears have one of the best backcourts in the country with Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell, the Longhorns are similarly loaded in the backcourt, where Matt Coleman III is one of the best floor generals in the nation. He’s also surrounded by Courtney Ramey (who is questionable for this game) and Andrew Jones, who are both capable of getting hot in a hurry. If Ramey plays, look for Texas’ guards to hold their own in this game. That would be huge, as Baylor can count on its backcourt to dominate pretty much anybody else.
Where Texas has a massive advantage is in the frontcourt, though. Baylor is a tremendous basketball team, but the Bears are far from tremendous in size. They like to play very small, and that might be a problem against Texas. The Longhorns have a ton of productive big men, and Jericho Sims, Kai Jones and Greg Brown are capable of playing well against guys their own size. Imagine what they can do to a team that doesn’t have anybody big enough to body them up.
In Waco, or on a neutral floor, Baylor would be the right pick in this matchup. But in this one? Texas appears to be the side to go with. Even if the Longhorns can’t win outright, they should be able to keep it very close.
PREDICTION: Texas +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Both of these teams can score a ton of points when they’re on, but the difference in the way they’ll want to play this game could lead to this being somewhat low-scoring — at least compared to expectations. Baylor likes to get up and down the floor and win games with their ability to hit shots from behind the three-point line, but the Bears might run into some problems with the Longhorns’ length.
Texas is going to do everything it can to contest shots, or even funnel shooters inside to its rim-protecting big men. And on the other end of the floor, the Longhorns would be wise to slow things down a bit and use their size inside. For that reason, this looks like a game that should be played in the mid-to-high 60s.
PREDICTION: Under 144.5 (-110)
Baylor vs Texas Betting Card
- Texas +5.5 (-110)
- Under 144.5 (-110)
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