Warriors vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Bank On the Over This Christmas

The Christmas Day NBA games are finally here, and as part of the five-game slate Santa has delivered a matchup between the last two NBA champions. The Denver Nuggets will be looking to exorcise the Ghost of Christmas Past when they host Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State has been one of the Nuggets' only true foils in the Nikola Jokic era, with the Splash Brothers at times proving an unsolvable puzzle for Denver’s defense. 

Despite past results, it's Denver that has been labeled as the favorite for this matchup by NBA odds. My free NBA picks for the Warriors vs. Nuggets believe the total for Monday’s clash has come in too low.

Warriors vs Nuggets odds

Warriors vs Nuggets predictions

The Denver Nuggets defense ranking ahead of their offense is one of the craziest stats of the season so far. And yet when they take on the Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day, I’m taking the Over at 232.5 anyway.

Why? If you look a little closer, there are some reasons to suspect the Nuggets’ defense is being overrated in this specific matchup. 

Denver’s D in the playoffs was one of the keys to its championship run. Of course, a big part of that was its commitment and intensity, which understandably is not something you can expect from the Nuggets for the entirety of an 82-game season.

Another piece however was they did away with any traditional backup center at all, instead sliding Aaron Gordon into the full-time backup five job.

The Nuggets beat you with size on both ends, but size is not always a structural advantage on defense. The Warriors present a unique challenge for traditional centers on defense, in that they kill opponents with pull-up shooting. The Nuggets don’t play all that much drop with Nikola Jokic these days, preferring to bring him to the level of the screen when possible. 

While we never got to see what last year’s Denver team would have looked like against Golden State in the playoffs, I do think Stephen Curry presents a real problem. The Nuggets are a good team at limiting opponent 3-point attempts, but it hasn’t been teams that are allegedly good 3-point defense teams that give the Warriors offensive trouble. 

Indeed, it’s just the opposite. As evidenced in the way Anthony Davis dominated the Warriors in the postseason, it’s teams that can shut off the rim completely that will short-circuit the Dubs' offense. For all the talk that they're a jump-shooting team (and of course, they are one) they use the threat of perimeter shooting to create quality looks at the basket.

The Nuggets remain one of the worst teams in terms of the frequency of opponent shots at the rim. The Warriors split cut action and the way they spread the floor will create seams for Golden State to attack. The more ground Denver's plodding centers have to cover, the more open shots at the rim Golden State will ultimately generate.

But I’m not going with a Warriors cover because, on the other side of the ball, I think Denver should have just as much success if not more.

Few teams have a good answer for Jokic, but few have one that is worse than what this version of the Warriors can offer. Draymond Green was essential to Golden State’s defensive game plan against Jokic in the 2022 playoffs, and without him I expect Jokic to lead an endless parade to the rim. 

The Warriors are among the NBA’s smallest teams, and the Nuggets can overwhelm them with size at just about every position. When all else fails, they can force help through a post-up and swing the ball for an open shot.

Denver has played at the level of a Top 5 defense over the last two weeks, which is in part why this total is not that high. But its opponents over that time didn’t have the kind of structural advantages on offense that the Warriors do, which is why the Over at 232.5 is my favorite bet on the board for Christmas Day.

My best bet: Over 232.5 (-118 at 888sport)

Warriors vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Over 233.5

Jamal Murray Over 3.5 rebounds

Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 assists

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+455 at FanDuel

Jamal Murray has not had the breakout season that many (including yours truly) predicted following his All-Time playoff run last season. Mostly that’s been due to injury once again throwing him out of rhythm, but despite that, he still finds ways to impact winning in every game. 

Lately, that’s meant working over his opponents on the boards. Murray is averaging 4.9 rebounds per game over his last 10 and is coming off a monster 12-rebound performance against the Charlotte Hornets. Without Green or Gary Payton II, the Warriors are more vulnerable to physical guards like Murray mixing it up on the glass.

Brandin Podziemski is a perfect Warriors player. “Podz” gives the Warriors ball handling, shooting, and above all connectivity.

He plays bigger than 6-foot-5, particularly in how he’s able to survey the court. He’s not dissimilar in some ways to another Warriors success story in Donte DiVincenzo in that they are always decisive when receiving the ball, whether that means driving, shooting, or passing. 

He keeps earning more minutes with Steve Kerr’s growing trust, and more on-ball reps have resulted in more assists. Podziemski has had four or more assists in six of his last eight games, and I think he’ll produce at that level again on Monday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite this line being available since late October and all the ups and downs both teams have experienced in the intervening time, it’s remained remarkably steady at between -4.5 and -5.5 in favor of the Nuggets. 

But the Warriors are picking it up on both sides of the ball of late and are now 13th on offense and defense for the season. Over their last two weeks, they’ve ranked 10th and 11th respectively. 

Golden State is also big on momentum against the spread, going 9-5 ATS following a straight up win this season. Denver has not been a strong ATS team this year but always seems to do enough to make you worry in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter.

The total for the Christmas Day game between the Warriors and the Nuggets opened at as low as 230.5 and is available as high as 235 at some sportsbooks.

Oddsmakers have consistently underestimated the Warriors' offense this season, with the Over going 17-12 in their 29 games overall.

Warriors vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Over is 17-12 in the Warriors' last 29 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nuggets.

Warriors vs Nuggets game info

Warriors vs Nuggets latest injuries

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