The Golden State Warriors have the same interest in the NBA Play-In Tournament as my wife does in my plans to rewatch the “John Wick” movies.
They’re both on a minutes restriction.
Golden State is taking it easy when it faces the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday night, with head coach Steve Kerr stating his stars will be limited.
That keeps oddsmakers on their toes, especially when it comes to player prop markets. And where there’s uncertainty, there's value.
Here are my best NBA picks and prop predictions for Warriors vs. Clippers on April 15.
Best Warriors vs Clippers props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Draymond Green |
Over 5.5 rebounds | -110 |
| Kristaps Porzingis |
Under 18.5 points | -105 |
 Darius Garland |
Over 2.5 3-pointers | -145 |
Prop #1: Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds
Could tonight be Draymond Green’s curtain call? If so, expect Steve Kerr to let Draymond go out on his shield.
The Golden State Warriors’ veteran forward has voiced mixed emotions about the team’s standing and its Play-In positioning but told reporters he’s always going to compete. That’s been true for the “16-Gamer”, who raises his play when the stakes are high.
Green has career average of 8.6 rebounds in the postseason – versus 6.8 in the regular season – and enters tonight well rested after sitting out the finale (against the L.A. Clippers).
Draymond will be called upon to guard Kawhi Leonard but also get run at center, given the injuries to the Clippers frontcourt. Los Angeles is down to one healthy(ish) center in Brook Lopez and has struggled when going small.
Draymond’s projections range from 5.01 to 7.1 rebounds but considering the matchups and minutes restrictions for the Dubs' centers Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford, Green will have plenty of chances to clean the glass.
Prop #2: Kristaps Porzingis Under 18.5 points
Kristaps Porzingis has only played 15 games in a Warriors jersey since being acquired at the trade deadline. With so many pieces in and out of the Golden State rotation, he admitted it’s been tough to find his spot in the offense.
He finished the regular season averaging just over 16 points as a Warrior, but his usage nosedived when Stephen Curry returned. Porzingis led the team with a 28.8% usage rate in March (18.2 ppg) with that metric sliding to 22.6% in April (12.0 ppg).
It also helped that the Warriors took on some horrible defenses during Porzingis’ uptick in scoring. The 7-footer lit up the likes of Chicago, Washington (twice), Dallas, and Brooklyn – all of which sit bottom 10 in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
Porzingis has yet to play 30 or more minutes for the Dubs and likely won’t breach that bar in the Play-In, given Kerr said he would be on a minutes restriction tonight. Couple that with postseason intensity from the L.A. defense and Porzingis’ point total is a stretch.
Forecasts sit between 16.5 and 17.7 points for “The Unicorn”, who has scored 19 or more points in just five of his 15 games for the Warriors – all coming before Curry returned.
His point markets for Wednesday ranges from 19.5 (Under -126) to 17.5 (Over -125), so shop around for the best of the number but going Under anything 18.5 or higher looks good.
Prop #3: Darius Garland Over 2.5 3-pointers
Clippers guard Darius Garland is expected to go toe-to-toe with Curry in the Play-In, which means also countering his output from beyond the arc.
Garland is Los Angeles’ most active outside threat, firing up almost eight shots from distance for 3.3 makes per game since coming to the team at the trade deadline.
His output from outside dwindled down the stretch as Garland saw his minutes shrink after an ankle injury and a lingering toe ailment. That also slimmed his 3-point prop totals, dropping those numbers from highs of 3.5 O/U.
While he averaged just 1.6 makes from distance in April, he finished March knocking down almost four triples per outing and hitting at least three in 11 of his first 13 games for the Clips.
Golden State has the fifth worst 3-point defense since the break (37.6%) and most player projections lean toward three hits from long range for Garland, sitting between 2.5 and 3.0 3-pointers.
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