The Los Angeles Lakers would have been favored in this NBA Cup quarterfinal regardless, but the San Antonio Spurs still going without Victor Wembanyama creates a two-bucket edge for L.A.
My Spurs vs. Lakers props and NBA picks also focus on Wemby’s absence, recognizing Los Angeles should have free rein into the lane in this game.
Best Spurs vs Lakers props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Luka Doncic |
Over 32.5 points | -120 |
 Stephon Castle |
Over 5.5 assists | +110 |
| LeBron James |
Over 6.5 assists | -120 |
Prop #1: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points
Who wants to doubt Luka Doncic in a single-elimination tournament setting? Who wants to doubt Luka Doncic in his second game back after the birth of his second child? And who wants to doubt Luka Doncic when he's scored 31+ points in eight straight games?
In fact, before his return to the lineup on Sunday, Doncic had scored 33+ points in seven straight games. He has scored 31 or more in 13 of his 17 games this season, including 35 points against the San Antonio Spurs a month ago.
Unsurprisingly, much of Doncic’s production has come from the free-throw line, averaging 11 points at the charity stripe in his most recent eight-game surge. If there's any reason to doubt Doncic tonight, it would be this exact habit.
No one has given up fewer free throw attempts per game this season than the Spurs’ 22.8 per game, but Doncic took 17 free throws against them in early November. We all know that if Doncic wants to get to the line, he will.
And without Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint, Doncic should have more paths into the paint for looks and/or fouls.
Prop #2: Stephon Castle Over 5.5 assists
Last year’s Rookie of the Year has largely picked up where he left off, averaging 17.4 points and 7.4 assists in 14 games this season. Stephon Castle missed nine games before returning to the lineup on Monday, a hip flexor strain needing a bit of caution.
In his return, Castle dished out five assists in only 23 minutes. In the game he injured the hip flexor, Castle dished out five assists in fewer than 16 minutes. He cleared this prop in each of the six games preceding that worry.
Castle is becoming one of the NBA’s best playmaking guards. If he plays 25+ minutes in this NBA Cup quarterfinal, expect Castle to log at least half a dozen assists. Frankly, he may reach double digits.
Prop #3: LeBron James Over 6.5 assists
LeBron James’ sciatica cost him 14 games, and he has looked some amount of 41 years old in his return. Yes, James turns 41 on December 30.
However, he has kept the ball moving, averaging 7.6 assists in his seven games and clearing this prop in four of the seven games.
Without Wembanyama on the court, James should put his back to the basket plenty against San Antonio. When the defense collapses, the Los Angeles Lakers have the shooters nowadays for LeBron to find.
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