The two hottest teams in the NBA are both in action tonight as part of a packed Wednesday slate, with the Detroit Pistons looking for a 14th straight win, and the Oklahoma City Thunder trying to pad their 17-1 start.
OKC’s clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves — a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals — might only be bettered by the late tip between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors.
In short, we’ve got a stacked NBA player props market. Here are my Top 3 NBA picks, headlined by Jimmy Butler.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Duncan Robinson |
Over 10.5 points | -110 |
 Kel’el Ware |
Over 11.5 rebounds | -115 |
 Jimmy Butler |
Over 5.5 rebounds | -120 |
Prop #1: Duncan Robinson Over 10.5 points
Spacing is key for the Detroit Pistons to give Cade Cunningham room to operate, and they had a Malik Beasley-shaped hole to fill on the perimeter coming into this season. Enter Duncan Robinson, who’s given Detroit steady numbers as a knockdown shooter.
Robinson is shooting 43% from 3-point range in November, and he’s gone past this points prop O/U line in seven of his last eight games, including 15 points against the Milwaukee Bucks at the weekend. Pencil him in for another productive outing tonight as the Pistons visit the Boston Celtics.
Boston will lean into smaller lineups, with Neemias Queta joining Jayson Tatum on the injury report, and Robinson can simply shoot over Payton Pritchard and Anfernee Simons in those matchups. The Celtics gave up 16 3-pointers in Sunday’s victory over the Orlando Magic.
Robinson is averaging a career-high 32 MPG with the Pistons, and he’s no stranger to playing at TD Garden after all the playoff series in his Miami Heat days. I see him making the most of open looks here.
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Prop #2: Kel’el Ware Over 11.5 rebounds
The surging Miami Heat have won five in a row to climb to the No. 3 spot in the East, and Kel’el Ware is doing his part to keep opponents off the glass.
This line feels too low given Ware’s recent rebounding numbers. He’s grabbed 14+ boards in five straight outings, headlined by an 18-rebound effort against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, and I’m jumping on the Over here against the Milwaukee Bucks, even with the prospect of Giannis Antetokounmpo returning from an adductor injury.
Ware’s presence allows Bam Adebayo to patrol further from the rim, and it’s a formula that’s working for the Heat — only the Chicago Bulls average more defensive rebounds per game than Miami.
I see Erik Spoelstra leaning heavily on Ware tonight, especially with the Heat’s lengthy injury report, and Miami’s fast pace dovetails nicely with rebounding opportunities at both ends.
Ware is averaging 3.4 offensive rebounds per contest this year, and this feels like a matchup where his length will be a key swing factor.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSN WI, FDSN SU
Prop #3: Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 rebounds
There’s an element of risk in picking the Over on a rebounds prop against the Houston Rockets, but it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Warriors tonight. Jimmy Butler won’t shy away from that task, and I like this price for 6+ boards.
Butler has nailed this prop in five of his past six outings, and he had 17 rebounds across the last two games of last season’s playoff series against the Rockets.
With Al Horford and Jonathan Kuminga out, Golden State will look to Butler and Draymond Green to battle Alperen Sengun in the paint, and Steven Adams’ ankle injury at least chips away at Houston’s rebounding edge.
Time and time again, Butler finds an extra gear in primetime slots, and Kevin Durant’s absence should ease some of Jimmy’s defensive workload. Plus, it’s worth noting that the Warriors had a slight advantage on the glass on Monday against the Utah Jazz’s towering Lauri Markkanen-Jusuf Nurkic frontcourt.
Butler is averaging 6.0 RPG at home this year, and that number feels well within reach tonight.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
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