Best NBA Player Props Today: Gordon Remains an Indispensable Piece for Denver

Prop bet #1: Gordon puts Wolves in check

If the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets is a chess match, then Nikola Jokic is a queen on the board. He’s dangerous from every position on the court and every offensive set revolves around leveraging the threats and advantages he creates.

If Jokic is a queen, then Aaron Gordon is a rook. While more limited in what he can do, Gordon is still an indispensable piece on the board, scoring, facilitating, and bringing the ball up to alleviate pressure on Jokic and Jamal Murray. His play has been one of the battlegrounds that has shifted the series back in favor of the champs.

This series has featured an absurd amount of cross-matching. I’m not sure there is a player in the Wolves rotation who hasn’t ended up guarding Gordon at some point. The cross-matching got away from the Timberwolves in Game 4, as they cycled through so many defenses to try and keep Denver off balance that they became unglued in key moments.

There are no great options for defending Denver, but the best the Wolves have shown requires Rudy Gobert to guard Gordon so he can roam behind the action, with Karl-Anthony Towns getting primary duties on Jokic. That coverage comes at the cost of conceding the corner three to Gordon which is why I find these Aaron Gordon odds so favorable.

AG is 8-for-11 from deep over the last three games. As I suspect the Wolves will toggle back to Gobert as Gordon’s primary defender for most of this game, I think his chances of knocking in one triple far exceed these odds.

Aaron Gordon prop: Over 0.5 threes (-150 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: The Deuce is loose

The New York Knicks are just about out of options. With injuries to four of their top six rotation players and a matchup against an Indiana Pacers team that has wisely decided to run their remaining players into the ground, their offense short-circuited in Game 4.

After OG Anunoby went out in Game 3, the Knicks went to a starting lineup that had served them well when OG was lost to a different injury in the regular season. That break in case of emergency starting unit saw Precious Achiuwa leading off at power forward beside Isaiah Hartenstein at center.

But while that lineup pairing was good enough for regular season ball, it’s not scoring or spacing enough to work with Jalen Brunson also limited. 

Tom Thibodeau recognized this once the game was already out of hand, instead bringing in Miles “Deuce” McBride over Precious, and shifting Josh Hart to power forward. That group is small, but it has the requisite shooting to give the Knicks a fighting chance. 

It also lets the Knicks excise Jericho Sims from the lineup completely by making Precious the full-time backup five and reducing Hartenstein's minutes load. The knock-on effects from such a move are too positive to ignore, and Deuce quietly hit three triples in the extended garbage time of Game 4. 

McBride has been relatively silent against the Pacers, but he was a massive player for the Knicks during the series against the Philadelphia 76ers shooting north of 42% from deep. With more opportunity to play alongside Brunson off the ball rather than as strictly his backup, McBride should have ample opportunity to cash this prop.

With Deuce’s s role set for a major shift in minutes and responsibility, I think these Miles McBride odds make for a favorable prop bet.

Miles McBride prop: Over 1.5 threes (-135 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Obi's revenge

There are few people in the world having as much fun as Obi Toppin right now. Not only is he performing well for a young and hungry Pacers team, but he’s also getting to stick it to the team and coach who previously gave up on him in the process. 

Toppin is one of the best open-court athletes in the NBA, and he’s emblematic of the way the Pacers bench has been killing the Knicks all series long. They come in with fresh legs, and whether it’s in transition or the half-court, everything they do is at an insane pace. It’s wearing out the Knicks who are struggling to keep up.

Toppin does present some defensive and rebounding challenges, which is largely why he never flourished in New York. But those flaws are minimized with the Knicks missing Mitchell Robinson and pivoting to smaller lineups overall.

Toppin’s versatility as an offense player has been on full display. No longer relegated to just being a standstill corner shooter like he was as a Knick, he’s scoring from all three levels, shooting 59.4% from the field and 54.5% from deep in the series.

These Obi Toppin odds don’t accurately capture just how effective he’s been as a scorer, averaging 13.8 points over his last five games.

Obi Toppin prop: Over 8.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)