There’s a two-game slate for the NBA Playoffs on Sunday, with one series starting and another coming to a close.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers tip off their Eastern Conference semifinal set 6:00 p.m. ET, which is followed by Game 7 between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets at 8:30 p.m. ET.
I size up the individual player performance for both contests and give my best NBA picks and prop predictions for May 4.
Best NBA player props today
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Siakam o2.5 asts (-120) -
Garland o18.5 pts (-110) -
Post u10.5 pts + rebs + asts (-110)
NBA player props for May 4
Pascal Siakam Over 2.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
Pascal Siakam took the reigns on offense for the Indiana Pacers in Round 1, leading the team in scoring with almost 20 points per game.
He’ll be a focal point of the Cleveland Cavaliers defense in Game 1, and while he may not put up the points, I do see Siakam with his share of set-ups.
Siakam’s assists numbers were up-and-down to open the playoffs. He averaged just 2.4 assists versus Milwaukee — after averaging 3.4 in the regular season — but did have four assists in Game 4 when the Bucks defense started to tighten up on the Indiana forward after his outputs of 24, 25, and 28 points in the opening three games.
The Cavaliers have a big frontcourt to throw at the 6-foot-8 Siakam and will attempt to pressure the ball out of his hands. In Round 1, his advanced metrics showed 5.2 potential assists per game, and that stat jumped to 7.0 over the final two games of the series.
Siakam’s assist total sits at 2.5 Over/Under for Game 1 on Sunday while player projections look more like his output from the regular season. Models range from 3.2 to 4.2 assists from Siakam, with my number at 3.75. Given that forecast, his Over 2.5 assists should be priced past -200 today.
Darius Garland Over 18.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Darius Garland’s prop markets come with some uncertainty, due to Cleveland’s star guard being questionable for Game 1. He’s missed the past two games with a toe injury and hasn’t played since April 23.
With Cleveland making quick work of Miami, Garland has been able to rest up with little pressure to push his injury. Local media reports Garland took part in an active practice on Friday and then a lighter workload Saturday, hinting that the explosive guard could be good to go for Sunday night.
If so, Garland is primed for a big game against an Indiana defense that struggles to contain guards. The Pacers gave up some sizable outputs to Milwaukee’s guards and their up-tempo style encourages a quicker pace and plenty of points.
In his two games against the Heat, Garland put up point totals of 21 and 27 points on 51.6% shooting. And while he missed the final two meetings with Indiana in the regular season, Garland scored 20 and 24 points against Indiana earlier in the year.
Garland will welcome a downhill style of series, scoring a good chunk of his buckets off fastbreaks and drives to the paint. Player projections for Garland all sit around 20 points, ranging from 19.0 to 21.4 for Game 1.
Oddsmakers are playing it safer with Garland given his status, with the shooting guard’s Over/Under at 18.5 points. My projection comes out to 20.3 points, which gives us headroom for the Over tonight.
Quinten Post Under 10.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at bet365)
Quinten Post had a great start to his first taste of playoff action, logging a good share of floor time off the bench for the Golden State Warriors and making the most of those minutes.
However, the center has seen his action dwindle the past two games with the Houston Rockets going after the rookie on offense. After playing at least 20 minutes in the opening four contests, Post has logged just 14 and 18 minutes in Games 5 and 6, scoring as many points as he picked up personal fouls (10).
Coach Steve Kerr praised his first-year center and told the media he wouldn’t hesitate to play Post in Game 7 — “if I think that’s the right call.” But he did admit that Post’s foul issues have become a liability with the Rockets exploiting him.
Kerr could opt to go with more familiar faces in the frontcourt in a crucial Game 7. He hinted to the media that Jonathan Kuminga could see a return to action after riding the pine for most of the series. Kerr also stated that Kevon Looney would play more than the two minutes he received in Game 6.
That’s a lot of bodies to balance in the front court and while some projections are still high on Post’s efforts, I just don’t know if he’s going to get the playing time to threaten those totals.
He’s posted combo stat lines of seven and eight points + rebounds + assists the past two games, and I’m banking on Kerr siding with experience in a do-or-die Game 7.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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