Best NBA Player Props Today: Only Treats Tonight

Prop bet #1: Grimes mucks it up

The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers will face off for the first time since the Knicks unceremoniously ousted the Cavs in five games in the first round of last year's playoffs. 

While the Cavaliers have a solid core four of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobly, and Jarrett Allen, their biggest problem last season and in that series was their lack of depth. Shockinginly, the Cleveland front office didn’t do anything to address that in the offseason.

So, that lack of depth has spilled over into the start of the season and the Cavs’ defense has struggled out of the gate. Through three games Cleveland ranks 24th in defensive rating and 21st in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Cavaliers biggest problem has been with opposing guards.

Cleveland ranks 24th in points per game allowed to opposing guards and is allowing them to shoot nearly 40% from 3-point range. 

You might think I’d look to Jalen Brunson here. Sure, he’s been great as a Knick, but I don’t love his number in this one. So, instead, let’s turn our attention to his backcourt mate Quentin Grimes.

Grimes has had a bit of a slow start to the season shooting the basketball. The 23-year-old shooting guard went 4-7 from the field, including 3-6 from three on opening night against the Boston Celtics, but is just 4-15 the last two games combined.

That said, Grimes has a great release and is taking just about six threes per game. He is also a career 38.8% shooter from beyond the arc. This is the perfect matchup for him to get back on track and his points total is low enough to attack the Over.

Quentin Grims prop: Over 7.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Crash the boards

Kevin Durant will face off against Victor Wembanyama for the first time when the Phoenix Suns host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night.

The Wemby experience has had some ups and downs early on but there is no doubt the potential is there. The French phenom is doing it all for the Spurs, averaging 15.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. For tonight’s matchup, I want to focus on the boards.

Wembanyama has gone for five, 12, and five rebounds and is averaging 5.7 defensive rebounds per game through his first three NBA games. His rebounding total is set at 6.5 for this matchup against the Suns and I think this number is a touch too low. 

The Suns have been a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team so far this season, ranking ninth in rebounding rate and 15th in opponent rebounds per game. But they have been a little more passive at their end of the floor. Phoenix ranks next-to-last in opponent offensive rebounds per game. And that’s where I think Wemby can take this number Over.

The Spurs play at a fairly high tempo, ranking seventh in pace but a middling 15th in true shooting percentage. That should mean a fair number of chances for Wembanyama to crash the offensive glass and grab a few more boards there. The plus money is the cherry on top here.

Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+110 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Durant tax

That’s not the only prop I like for this first meeting between KD and Wemby. For prop No. 2 in this game, I’m taking a closer look at Kevin Durant’s point total.

The year got off to an interesting start for Durant and the Suns. They opened the season facing his former team the Golden State Warriors, then he took on LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, where it looked like Durant wanted to prove he was the alpha dog in that game.

But following that, the Suns made quick work of the Utah Jazz in a game where they were 5.5-point favorites. Durant was efficient in that game going 8-11 from the field in that game but only played 29 minutes. And I think you can expect the Suns to not push KD too hard following those big early-season matchups.

That’s why when I see Durant’s point total sitting at 31.5 I think it’s a touch too high. It’s that high because the Spurs haven’t been a great defensive team so far, ranking 27th in defensive rating. But Durant has only gone Over that number once this season and it was in that back-and-forth battle with the Lakers. This game with the Spurs shouldn’t be as close with Phoenix favored by 7.5 points.

I am betting on another efficient but shorter night of work for Durant as the Suns take care of business in this matchup. Think in the 26-30 point range. It will also be interesting to see if Wemby takes on the challenge of guarding Durant for portions of the game. Either way, this number is too high. And once again we are getting plus money.

Kevin Durant prop: Under 31.5 points (+105 at bet365)