Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Leonard Puts the Team on His Back

It’s a light night of NBA action, with just four games on the betting board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.

The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Thunder, will they refocus in time to slow down Luka Doncic — and will that hurt their offense? And Kawhi Leonard is starting to look like the matchup problem he has been in years past, will the reins be left off him in tonight’s matchup against the Nuggets?

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 5.

NBA player props for January 5

• Smart Under 1.5 3s
• Sengun Over 13.5 pts
• Leonard Over 22.5 pts

Picks made on 1/5/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Smart money

The Boston Celtics are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season: A 150-117 drubbing at the hands of (checks notes) the Oklahoma City Thunder. In a game where OKC was (checks notes again) without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Everything about that statement is stunning considering the Celtics have arguably been the best team in basketball this season. Now, the Cs will have to refocus quickly for the third game of their West Conference road trip because they’ll have to deal with one of the best players in basketball: Luka Doncic.

Doncic and the Mavs are on a heater, winning seven in a row. That said, I actually think the loss and the matchup should motivate the Celtics to play well in trying to shut down Doncic.

But with the Celtics focusing on shutting down Doncic, that could leave something to be desired on offense for some of the team’s secondary scorers. More specifically, I’m talking about Marcus Smart.

Smart is obviously a stout defender, but he is still an inconsistent shooter. He's hitting just 33.3% of his 5.2 3-point attempts per game this season, and just 25% of his attempts over the last five games, which includes going 0-for-6 over his last two games.

And the Mavs are not really the team to find your shooting rhythm against. Not only will Smart have his hands full with Doncic and his teammates, but Dallas allows the third-fewest 3-point attempts and the second-fewest makes per game.

I’m betting Smart stays cold in this one, and taking the Under on his made 3-pointers prop.

Marcus Smart Prop: Under 1.5 made 3-pointers (+100)

Rocket launch

The Houston Rockets are flying — when it comes to the race for Victor Wembanyama that is. Their 10 wins on the season are tied for the fewest in the NBA at this point. If the Rockets do land the No. 1 overall pick in the next NBA draft, they’ll already have some interesting pieces to put around him: Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., and even Alperen Sengun.

Today, we will focus on the latter as Sengun and the Rockets host the Utah Jazz. The Jazz’s red-hot start to the season seems like a distant memory now that the team sits at 19-21 and has lost five games in a row.

Part of the problem for the Jazz is that they haven’t been able to stop anyone from scoring for the better part of a month. They currently rank 27^th in defensive rating and 23^rd in scoring defense. And Utah has been really getting pushed around on the inside. The Jazz rank dead last in the NBA in opponent points in the paint. Enter Sengun.

The second-year center out of Turkey is averaging 14.3 points per game while shooting 55.1% from the floor. He’s also hauling down 8.5 rebounds per game. While Sengun can get outworked by bigger more athletic teams, his quickness and skills allow him to take advantage of teams who are less than good at defending the paint. And the Jazz fit the bill.

Sengun’s point total is 13.5 for this matchup because he’s had a couple of low-scoring games in some tough matchups. That won’t be the case against the Jazz — bet the Over.

Alperen Sengun Prop: Over 13.5 points (-115)

Kawhi's on the prize

Can anyone tell me what type of load management Kawhi Leonard is on these days? Because the Los Angeles Clippers continue to be vague about it. Either way, Leonard could shoulder more of the scoring load tonight when the Clippers visit the Denver Nuggets.

Leonard generally seems to be playing 30-to-35 minutes per game right now, but hasn’t played more than three games in a row this season. This means he hasn’t played since New Year’s Eve against the Pacers.

But he should thus be well-rested for tonight's matchup against the Nuggets. And the Clippers could need more from him as running mate Paul George is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Kawhi is also starting to look like the super-efficient shooter we have come to know over the years. Over Leonard’s last six games, he's averaging 23.3 points on 52% shooting, including 37.5% from beyond the arc. And now he gets a nice matchup against the Nuggets.

Denver isn’t exactly known for its defense, ranking 25th in D-rating. But simply put, it doesn’t have really anyone that can effectively guard Leonard. 

Leonard looks like a great bet to go Over his point total of 22.5 tonight, a number he has eclipsed four times in his last six games.

Kawhi Leonard Prop: Over 22.5 points (-120)

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