Best NBA Player Props Today: Trade Deadline Looms Large in Props Market

Prop bet #1: Everyone, back in the Poole!

At this point, I'm not sure what makes people cringe more: a Jordan Poole prop or the Over on a De'Aaron Fox assists prop.

No, Poole is not the scorer everyone thought he would be when he joined the Washington Wizards, but let's judge him based on the total of 14.5 points and not the expectation that he could lead the NBA in scoring after arriving in DC.

Poole is trading with a total of 14.5 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers because he is being priced as if Tyus Jones and Kyle Kuzma are playing. This is where we can leverage the trade deadline to our advantage. Poole isn't going anywhere. He will be in the lineup, but Jones and Kuzma are in the thick of trade rumors.

If you're the Wizards in the middle of trade negotiations for Kuzma and Jones, it makes complete sense to sit them out tonight. We've seen this in the past from teams where they sit players to keep them healthy, and so they don't have to play through all of the distractions.

We also just saw Kuzma miss Sunday's game against the Phoenix Suns with an "injury," and this caused Poole's points prop to close at 21.5. That's seven points higher than the 14.5 we can buy on Poole right now. You'll be in a powerful spot with this prop if you jump at the 14.5, and then the Wizards decide to sit Jones and Kuzma.

The thing is we can't solely bank on Kuzma and Jones sitting out, and that's why it's important to acknowledge that we have an edge Over the 14.5 points even if Kuzma and Jones play. 

Poole is projected to score 16.4 points against the Cavaliers, which allows us to price the Over 14.5 points at -142, but it is trading at DraftKings at -115. This is a bet I like in its current form, but there's a chance it will catch a massive boost as well.

Jordan Poole prop: Over 14.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Kuminga coming for the rim

You'd think that one Under in his last 10 games on his points prop would have sportsbooks continuously increasing the total on Jonathan Kuminga, but for some reason, they have decided to set it at 18.5 against the Philadelphia 76ers. In his previous game against the Brooklyn Nets, Kuminga was trading at 19.5, a number he went Over, and I believe this is a massive mistake by sportsbooks. They need to keep pushing this number up, but they haven't.

This isn't a heater by Kuminga, and he is not going to come crashing down to Earth all of a sudden. He is fully entrenched in this Golden State Warriors offense, running a ton of two-man games with Stephen Curry, and is the beneficiary of Curry's and Draymond Green's playmaking. 

Not only is Kuminga a high flyer who puts a ton of pressure on the rim, but the 76ers will be without their main rim protector in Joel Embiid, who is scheduled to be out 6-8 weeks after undergoing a procedure on his knee. With the 76ers defense spaced out to cover the Warriors' 3-point shooting and no rim protector in the lane, Kuminga could have a field day at the rim.

Similar to Poole, this bet could catch a boost from Andrew Wiggins sitting out due to his name being tossed around in trade rumors. Wiggins missed Monday's game against the Nets, and sitting out once again against the 76ers would only increase Kuminga's usage on offense.

Kuminga is projected to score 21.9 points, which allows us to price the Over 18.5 at -189, but it is trading at -120 at DraftKings. I think this was a whiff by the sportsbooks on the opener, and this prop has a move to 19.5 written all over it. This same projection would price the Over 19.5 points at -150.

Jonathan Kuminga prop: Over 18.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Ivey tower

As you can see from my bets on Kuminga and Poole, there's a common theme. There's an edge on these props even if these players' entire roster is playing, but with the trade deadline looming, they could see an unaccounted-for boost in usage on their opening lines.

For Jaden Ivey, it's Bojan Bogdanovic who is at the forefront of the trade rumors for the Detroit Pistons. If Bogdanovic sits, that would open up a ton of shots in the Pistons offense. And if you watch the Pistons play, there aren't too many players who can fill that scoring void, but Ivey is one of them.

Not only could Ivey catch a boost on this total of 14.5 points with Bogdanovic sitting, but this matchup against the Sacramento Kings is personal for Ivey. It was widely expected heading into the NBA Draft in 2022 that the Kings would take Ivey with the fourth-overall pick. They shocked everyone and opted for Keegan Murray, allowing the Pistons to draft Ivey with the fifth selection. I doubt Ivey has forgotten this, and NBA players always have an extra gear when a personal rivalry with a team is involved. 

Plus, this matchup against the Kings plays right into the hands of how Ivey likes to play. Both the Pistons and Kings like to play with pace, and Ivey will have no problem going up and down the floor in a transition-style game compared to a contest featuring more half-court sets.

Ivey is projected to score 16.8 points on Wednesday against the Kings, which allows us to price the Over 14.5 points at -157, but it is trading at -120 at Caesars. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 12%.

Jaden Ivey prop: Over 14.5 points (-120 at Caesars)