Best NBA Player Props Today: Booker Gets In the Holiday Spirit

Prop bet #1: Murray muted

I think there are potentially two bets to consider in this matchup: either Nikola Jokic Over his assists prop at 9.5 (+106) or Jamal Murray Under his assists prop of 6.5 at +112. I'm going to focus more on Jamal Murray's odds because there's been quite an adjustment to his total for this matchup against the Warriors.

In his most recent games, Murray has been trading with a total of 5.5 assists with increased juice on the Over, but for this matchup against the Warriors, FanDuel has raised the total to 6.5 with similar juice. It could be related to the fact Murray dropped eight dimes in both of his matchups against the Dubs last season, but one of those games was without Jokic in the lineup.

I think this total is too high for Murray because Golden State will have to focus its help defense more toward Jokic than Murray, making Murray more of a scorer and Jokic more of a passer. There's no way the Warriors decide to leave rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis on an island against Jokic.

The jump in the pricing for Murray's total is also eye-catching because it's not like we're seeing anything in his potential assists to warrant it. In his last three games, Murray is only averaging 8.3 potential assists per game, which is a low number for someone with a total of 6.5 with increased juice on the Over.

This Murray prop is extremely high on the watchlist for me, and it's most likely going to be the first bet I pull the trigger on to make an official play. I'm just curious to see if we can catch an even better price as more sportsbooks post their lines other than FanDuel.

Jamal Murray prop: Under 6.5 assists (+112 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Book it

Devin Booker's odds for his assists prop in the last two games have seen a ton of steam towards the Over from the opening price, and unfortunately for his backers, he went Under the total in both games.

When Booker's assists prop steamed hard for the second straight game, I fired up my NBA League Pass and began to study how he was generating these potential assists when the Phoenix Suns played the Sacramento Kings. 

If you played Booker to go Over his assists total against the Kings, I have bad news for you: you were extremely unlucky when he finished with seven assists.

There were at least three potential assists at the rim where Booker's teammates missed a layup or a dunk, which easily should've been an assist. Not only are we seeing Booker consistently posting a high number of potential assists per game, but they should be converted by his teammates.

In the game against the Kings, the Suns were without Jusuf Nurkic, who was out for personal reasons. I'm assuming Nurkic will be playing on Christmas Day, but this is still up in the air without an official injury report being released by the Suns, and it's important because it changes how I would price this prop for Booker against the Mavericks. 

The Mavericks have a rim protector in Dereck Lively, so I'd feel much more comfortable with Nurkic finishing these potential assists at the rim off of a Booker pass with his physicality than Drew Eubanks, who will try to outjump Lively.

FanDuel is also the only sportsbook posting odds on Booker's assists props at the moment, so keep your eyes peeled for potentially a better price on the Over for Booker's assists prop as more sportsbooks post their odds.

Devin Booker prop: Over 8.5 assists (+112 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: All Hart

When I mentioned in the intro that these bets are leans and ones I'm watching, this is a perfect example of why, because we don't even have Isaiah Hartenstein's odds, but I do have a solid idea of what number we should expect to see.

The New York Knicks just played the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday, and Hartenstein was trading with a total of 1.5, with the Over priced at -194. The Knicks center went Under this total with one assist, so I expect we will see this number posted somewhere in the 1.5 (-170) range for Christmas Day.

Might I add that Hartenstein going Under this total on Saturday against the Bucks might be the best gift you receive this holiday season? Hartenstein had four potential assists, but the one official assist should outweigh that number and give us a longer price on the Over 1.5 assists on Monday.

This also isn't the first game where Hartenstein has shown us he can drop dimes against the Bucks. When the Knicks played the Bucks on December 5, Hartenstein led the Knicks in potential assists and had five dimes in only 18 minutes of action. We've seen other centers also have success accumulating assists against the Bucks this season, and now Hartenstein's minutes are also elevated with the injury to Mitchell Robinson.

We will have to see what odds get posted and calculate the expected value, but I do think there's an argument to be made here for taking this total Over the alternate line of 2.5 assists for plus money.

Isaiah Hartenstein prop: Over 1.5 assists (-164 at Caesars)