The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers are ready to rock and roll in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference semifinal set tonight.
With Cleveland countering last time out, the Cavs are once again home chalk on Monday. I pass on the point spread and turn my attention to the individual efforts with my Pistons vs. Cavaliers props.
For more NBA picks, check out our full Pistons vs. Cavaliers predictions for May 11.
Best Pistons vs Cavaliers props for Game 4
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Donovan Mitchell |
Over 4.5 rebounds | +110 |
 Cade Cunningham |
Over 9.5 assists | +105 |
| Duncan Robinson |
Over 2.5 threes | -160 |
Game 4 Prop #1: Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 rebounds
Donovan Mitchell hauled down 10 rebounds in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ win in Game 3 — tying his second-biggest day on the boards all season.
Those rebounds weren’t all because Mitchell was feeling extra froggy on the glass, but rather a byproduct of the Cavs putting extra emphasis on boxing out the Detroit Pistons forwards.
“Their bigs are elite, elite at offensive rebounding,” Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson told the media. “A lot of times, our bigs are wrestling with their bigs. That’s why Donovan having 10 rebounds was huge last night.
With Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley throwing themselves in the way (and snatching only 12 collective rebounds Saturday), Mitchell found himself in position for 17 rebounding chances in Game 3. That’s more than the 16 combined in the first two games, which led to outputs of four and six boards.
His Game 4 projections all sit north of the 4.5 O/U, with a ceiling of 5.7 rebounds. He’s brought down five or more boards in seven of his 10 postseason outings and has topped this bar in 10 of his past 13 games overall.
Game 4 Prop #2: Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 assists
Game 3 was a rough one for Cade Cunningham. The Pistons' point guard failed to energize the offense — shooting 10-for-27 — and barfed up eight turnovers in the loss.
Despite that mess, he still topped his assist total. Yet there was a lot of meat still left on the bone when it came to Cunningham’s playmaking.
Part of the problem was Cleveland couldn’t miss on offense, shooting a sizzling 58% from the field. That forced a Detroit attack to start its possessions off the inbounds, rather than having its defense fuel the offense in transition and from turnovers.
He was clocked for 16 potential assists in Game 3, trickling down to 10 actual dimes (62.5% conversion rate). The Pistons fired at only 45% from the field, being forced to play more half-court schemes, and wasted those setups.
In the prior two games combined, Cunningham dished out 17 helpers on 23 potential assists (74% conversions).
The Cavs’ shooting comes back to earth in Game 4, and Cunningham will find himself in his usual spot behind the wheel, pushing pace and creating for teammates on the open floor.
His models for Game 4 are divided, ranging from 8.2 to 10.3 assists. Given the unique circumstances on Saturday, I’m leaning toward the high side of Cunningham’s playmaking vs. a Cleveland defense that’s 25th in opponent assist rate (64.9%).
Game 4 Prop #3: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 threes
Duncan Robinson’s 3-point prop isn’t coming cheap in Game 4, nor should it.
The Pistons’ sharpshooter is clicking at 58% from distance in the series, 43% for the playoffs, and has knocked down at least three triples in eight of his 10 postseason outing.
That includes totals of five, five, and four long-range makes in the opening three games of this series. It’s not just Robinson’s success that should sell you on his 3-point prop, however.
It’s the volume of attempts from beyond the arc and the amount of space the Cavaliers are giving him. Fourteen of his 24 total 3-point shots have come with no defender within at least four feet of Robinson (making nine of those “open” to “wide open” looks).
It also helps that Robinson is 6-foot-7 and facing smaller defenders in Mitchell (6-foot-2), James Harden (6-foot-5), and Max Strus (6-foot-5), who struggle to get a hand up on closeouts.
His Game 4 forecasts call for at least three makes from downtown with a ceiling of 3.6 treys. His defensive shortcomings make me a little nervous in terms of minutes, but with Detroit an underdog on the road, game script says it trails and needs Duncan to take and make triples in order to close that gap.
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