The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from clinching a spot in this year’s Western Conference Finals. They’re set to face off against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in tonight's Game 6.
All eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, as he’ll likely have to put on a spectacular performance to keep his team’s championship dreams alive.
Here’s how we’re approaching tonight's Nikola Jokic player props and NBA picks for May 15.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Nikola Jokic best bet
Under 8.5 assists (-130 at bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are making things hard on Nikola Jokic. The star big man was one of the league’s premier passers during the regular season and averaged a career-high 10.2 assists per game. However, his numbers have dipped against the Thunder’s elite defense.
Jokic hasn’t gone over six assists once in the second round. A must-win elimination game will likely force him to be more aggressive as a scorer, if anything, as he remains his side’s most dangerous offensive threat.
Denver will live with Jokic missing tough shots against a stout defense. The Nuggets will want their best player to attack, and it’ll be difficult for Jokic to reach nine assists if he takes 25 or more shots.
Nikola Jokic same-game parlay
Under 8.5 assists
Over 14.5 rebounds
Over 28.5 points
I’m backing Jokic to go Over his point total for the same reason I’m backing him to go Under his assist total.
Jokic tried to will his team to a win in Game 5 and needed to score 44 points on 25 shots to push the Thunder to the edge. Denver was up late and had a real chance to steal a game on the road, and there’s no reason to go away from the three-time MVP.
Jokic’s offense has been up-and-down in this series, but he has eclipsed 40 points twice against the Thunder this round. He’s scored at least 30 points in three of his previous four elimination games.
Then there’s Jokic’s rebounding. He’s averaging 14.8 boards per contest in the second round, and it’s clear that Denver isn’t comfortable going to bigs off the bench. Only three players snagged more rebounds than Jokic during the regular season, and he leads all players with 155 rebounds this postseason.
Jokic has logged at least 43 minutes in four of his last five games, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to go Over.
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