It’s Cinco de Mayo, and by the looks of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s series odds, they’re going to bust the Los Angeles Lakers open like a piñata.
Oklahoma City is laying more than -15 at home in Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal after thrashing L.A. in the regular season. Rather than tangle with that pile of chalk, my Lakers vs. Thunder predictions swing my focus to the individual efforts in the series opener.
Here are my best NBA picks and Lakers vs. Thunder props on May 5.
Best Lakers vs Thunder props for Game 1
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Deandre Ayton |
Over 0.5 assists | -130 |
 Alex Caruso |
Over 7.5 points | -105 |
| Marcus Smart |
Over 1.5 threes | -135 |
Game 1 Prop #1: Deandre Ayton Over 0.5 assists
It’s just one little assist. How hard could it be?
Los Angeles Lakers center Deandre Ayton was huge for L.A. against Houston, but finds himself amongst the trees vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder roll out twin 7-footers in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, and Ayton shrank like he was swimming in cold water over his four matchups with OKC. He averaged 5.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and barely a blip in the assist column.
He’s not getting easy looks from the post here, which means passing to the perimeter or finding teammates in motion. Ayton will also wrangle a couple of offensive rebounds, likely kicking out to an open shooter. If this massive spread holds true, L.A. will be letting it fly from distance to keep pace.
Ayton did record at least one dime in four of his six Round 1 contests, and while he managed only a single assist in those four meetings with OKC, he registered eight potential dimes.
Player projections all lean toward at least one helper from the Lakers’ big man, with forecasts ranging from 0.9 to 1.2 assists in Game 1.
Game 1 Prop #2: Alex Caruso Over 7.5 points
The ghosts of "Purple and Gold" past will hunt the Lakers in Round 2. Former L.A. pest Alex Caruso is playing a key role for Oklahoma City with Jalen Williams sidelined with a hamstring injury.
The reserve guard is a two-way contributor for OKC, watching his usage jump from 12.1% to 17.5% since Williams went down in Game 2 against Phoenix.
Caruso opened with efforts of two and seven points on a combined 4-for-10 shooting in the first two playoff contests. His minutes and offensive activity increased, scoring 13 and 14 points in the final two games while firing up a 10-for-16 count from the field.
His scoring props have climbed from 5.5 O/U to 7.5 O/U, and Game 1 projections are pretty much on the fence with his current 7.5-point prop total. I see a higher ceiling.
Caruso has averaged more than nine points over the past two playoff runs and gets a bump in the offensive pecking order as long as Williams is out. And for what it’s worth, he put up six, 10, and 17 points vs. the Lakers this season.
Game 1 Prop #3: Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Threes
If Los Angeles is to keep pace with Oklahoma City’s powerful offense, it needs all hands to hit shots. For veteran guard Marcus Smart, that means making from beyond the arc.
Smart ran hot and cold vs. Houston in Round 1. He did hit two or more triples in four of six games — including a 5-for-7 Game 2 — and shot 44.8% from distance for the series.
Given the beefy spread, the game script says Los Angeles is playing from behind, prompting plenty of 3-point attempts to close the gap. And if OKC has any weakness, it’s protecting the perimeter.
The Thunder allow foes to fire at 36.7% on the season, including 36.3% from Phoenix in Round 1. Oklahoma City's tight interior defense prompts opponents to jack up almost 39 treys per game, while making 14.3 of those long-range looks. That's the third most 3PMs allowed in the NBA.
Smart faced Oklahoma City twice in the regular season, going 5-for-11 from beyond the arc. His Game 1 models range from 1.2 to 2.1 makes from downtown, with most forecasts leaning toward two 3-pointers tonight.
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