The Miami Heat were really good – and really lucky – to fend off their first elimination game of the NBA Finals.
Jimmy Butler's sensational triple-double and a wide-open miss from the Lakers' Danny Green on what would have been the go-ahead 3-pointer in the final seconds of Game 5 helped lead the Heat to a thrilling 111-108 victory, Miami's ninth straight-up win of the postseason as an underdog.
But the Heat will likely need to be even better Sunday in Game 6 against a highly-motivated Lakers team that has yet to lose consecutive games in the NBA playoffs.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Heat on October 11.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat betting preview
NBA Finals Odds to Win Series
Los Angeles: -900
Miami: +600
Injuries
Los Angeles: Anthony Davis PF (Probable)
Miami: Goran Dragic PG (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
Under is 8-2 in Lakers' last 10 NBA Finals games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Heat.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Oddsmakers are taking the Miami threat seriously, pinning a -5 on the favored Lakers – the smallest spread since Game 1. Los Angeles was never really close to covering at -7.5 in Game 5, with a max lead of five points (while trailing by as many as 11 at one point). The Heat have covered four straight and are now an unbelievable 16-4 ATS in the postseason.
But throwing everything they have at the Lakers is taking a measurable toll. Jimmy Butler has sat for just 12 total minutes of action since Game 2, and the Heat went just seven players deep in the Game 5 win. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both played 42 minutes but still have plenty in the tank after getting a good amount of rest over the first three Los Angeles postseason series.
The Lakers were thiiiiiis close to a champagne celebration Friday night. We're confident they'll atone for that gut-wrenching loss with a comfortable Game 6 victory.
PREDICTION: Lakers -5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Friday's 219-point result finished 3.5 points clear of the total, making the teams 2-3 O/U in the NBA Finals. And with three of the six games finishing within four points of the final number, oddsmakers are in prime form here.
So what do we see happening in Game 6? A greater defensive commitment from both sides. Containing LeBron, AD and Jimmy Buckets won't be easy for those involved, but it was the secondary scoring that helped elevate both sides, particularly the victorious Heat, who got a whopping 62 points from the non-Butler members of their starting lineup.
We like both sides to tighten up the opposing team's secondary offense, leaving the Under as the superior choice.
PREDICTION: Under 214.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Regardless of whether injured point guard Goran Dragic returns from a torn plantar fascia that has sidelined him since Game 1, Butler is going to once again be the offensive focal point for Miami. He's averaging 30.5 points in four games without Dragic, and is almost certainly going to be active on offense as he looks to send this series to a seventh and deciding game.
Between the 18.3 shot attempts and the 11.3 free-throw tries he's averaging over the past four outings, Butler will get plenty of opportunities to convert the Over on his point total. We like his chances of getting there.
PREDICTION: Jimmy Butler Over 26.5 Points (-120)
Lakers vs Heat Betting Card
- Lakers -5 (-110)
- Over 214.5 (-110)
- Jimmy Butler Over 26.5 Points (-120)
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