Heat vs Celtics Game 4 Player Props: Zeroing in on Tatum and Horford

The Boston Celtics’ backs could not be much more up against the wall after their comeback fell short in Game 3. Miami has regained home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals and could go for a knockout blow in Game 4. To hold off the Heat, the Celtics will need contributions from spots other than their two star wings, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will still be the keys to any Boston success.

Particularly, Tatum’s shoulder pain could dictate this game and which course our preferred player prop picks take for Game 4 between the Celtics and Heat tonight.

Heat vs Celtics Game 4 prop picks

• Horford Over 11.5 pts (-106)
• Tatum Over 5.5 asts (+122)
• Tatum Under 6.5 rebs (-140)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.

Heat vs Celtics Game 4 props

Horford keeps hunting

Let’s be clear, Bam Adebayo played well in Game 3. He finished with 31 points and 10 rebounds. He blocked a shot and had four steals while committing just three fouls.

Yet, Al Horford feasted. He went 7 of 14 from the field — including 3 of 5 from deep — for 20 points and collected 14 rebounds. He seemed to find a way to counteract Miami’s smaller lineups simply by shooting more. Horford took only four field goals in Game 2, making all four, before upping the volume.

The Heat have no other big to send at Horford, and as good as both P.J. Tucker and Jimmy Butler are at defending anyone on the court, they are not at their best against Horford’s savviness or 6-foot-9 frame.

If either Tatum or Brown is not at his best, Horford quickly becomes Boston’s best No. 2 option, meaning he will have more chances to keep shooting. Yet, his total points prop is as low as 11.5. More surprisingly, that Over is not juiced. Rather, it can be had at a very appealing -106.

Horford should get halfway to cashing that with just a couple of threes. If he draws a foul, then he’s at eight points. Two offensive rebounds, as he had in Game 3, will put him in a prime position to reach 12 points and put some money in your pocket.

PICK: Al Horford Over 11.5 points (-106)

Tatum’s growing generosity

Boston has not had an easy go of it at any point in this postseason. The Celtics did not dodge the Nets in the opening round, and though that series became a sweep, it was by no means a cakewalk. Then Boston had to take out the defending champs. Now, it is faced with the team that merely boasted the best regular-season record in the East.

Thus, Jayson Tatum is playing more than ever, averaging 40.7 minutes through 14 games this postseason. That is up nearly five minutes from the regular season, and with that bump, he is dishing out more assists. Tatum is averaging 5.9 assists per game in these playoffs compared to 4.4 during the regular season.

But a 34.1% jump can't fully be credited to a slight minutes bump. When defenses key on Tatum, he makes the right play, finds the open man, and the Celtics have, in turn, been making their shots all playoffs, going 46% from the field and 38.3% from deep.

As long as that hot shooting doesn't completely tail off, Tatum should keep creating buckets for others. In seven of his 14 playoff games, he has handed out more than five dimes, yet betting on him to do so again can still be had at positive value.

PICK: Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 assists (+122)

Meanwhile, Tatum’s shortcoming

Maybe it's the added playmaking or maybe it's the physicality of the playoffs wearing him out. Perhaps the quality of competition has schemed Tatum away from the boards. Whatever it is, Tatum has stopped rebounding in the postseason.

During the season, the 6-foot-8 wing averaged eight boards per game. In the playoffs, that number has fallen to 5.8, and he has exceeded six rebounds just three times in 14 games.

When going against Tucker, Butler, and Adebayo, finding rebounds can be even more difficult. Furthermore, if Tatum’s right cervical nerve impingement bothers him at all in Game 4, this is where it would be most likely to show up.

He will have to shoot for Boston to have any chance at evening this series, though he may pass the ball a bit more rather than force up awkward or off-balance shots with a weakened shoulder. He will not want to jostle in the air for rebounds in that situation.

There is a bit of a premium to pay to fade Tatum on the glass, but not one so steep as to ruin this thought.

PICK: Jayson Tatum Under 6.5 rebounds (-140)

Pages related to this topic