The Boston Celtics have a pulse – and they have their two Js to thank for it.
Behind a combined 59 points from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics rolled to a 121-108 win over Miami to force a Game 6 in the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday night. It was just the third non-cover in 14 playoff games for the Heat, who find themselves as the underdog for the sixth consecutive time in the series – and in desperate need of a long-range resurgence
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Heat on September 27.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat betting preview
NBA Odds to Win Series
Celtics: +160
Heat: -185
Injuries
Celtics: Romeo Langford SG (Out)
Heat: Chris Silva SG (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
Four of the five games in the series have finished above the total. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Celtics vs Heat line movement
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: BetMGM in Nevada just dropped the Celtics from -3.5 to -3. "We actually need the Celtics," BetMGM's Jeff Stoneback said, "It's 2/1 money on the Heat, and the ticket count is about 3/2 on the Heat."
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami is not quite as popular today as it was Saturday, but bettors at FanDuel still like the Heat. Jimmy Butler and Co. are landing 60 percent of bets and 74 percent of dollars on the point spread, and the line dropped today from Celtics -3.5 to -3. The Heat are also attracting 79 percent of moneyline tickets/60 percent of moneyline cash. The total is up to 215, with 83 percent of tickets/77 percent of money on the Over.
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FanDuel opened the Celtics -3.5 late Friday night and stuck with that number all day Saturday. However, through Saturday night, the Heat were landing 68 percent of tickets and 67 percent of money on the spread. Miami was even more popular on the moneyline, garnering 84 percent of bets and 78 percent of cash. The total was down a notch, from 214.5 to 214, but the Over was getting 86 percent of early bets and 81 percent of early dollars.
Against the Spread Pick
Oddsmakers are nothing if not consistent. They've had the Boston Celtics as favorites of two to 3.5 points throughout the series. And the Miami Heat have rewarded bettors for their faith, winning three of those games outright – but they weren't close to winning or covering Friday night, falling behind by as many as 19 points en route to just their third loss of the NBA playoffs.
The Heat's undoing in Game 5? Some truly dreadful shooting from 3-point range. Miami connected on just 7-of-36 attempts from deep, and all those misses allowed Boston to enjoy a 17-6 advantage in fast-break points. Boston also took advantage of 13 offensive rebounds in the win, while Miami managed just six.
Don't expect the Heat to shoot that badly from long range or give up that many second-chance points – and given that Miami actually led by 12 at one point in Game 5, correcting those two issues should help them earn the win and the cover.
PREDICTION: Miami +3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Over has been a tour de force so far in this best-of-seven, with four of the first five games surpassing the number. And that's particularly notable for the Game 5 result, which exceeded the number by more than 15 points despite Miami's abysmal showing from 3-point territory and the fact that neither the Heat nor the Celtics shot better than 45.5 percent from the floor.
Both teams' starting units have thrived offensively, and they've each received strong performances from select bench players. All four of the Overs have finished at least nine points above the final total, while the only Under fell one point short. If you want to get off the Over train, be our guest – but we won't be joining you as long as both sides continue to run at such a quick pace.
PREDICTION: Over 214 (-110)
Team/score prop pick
The Heat need Goran Dragic to be one of their offensive lynchpins if they hope to avoid a dreaded Game 7 – and while he delivered 23 points in Game 5, they came despite a 1-for-7 performance from 3-point range. Dragic shot 7-for-10 from inside the arc, and has now scored 20+ points in four of the first five games of the conference final.
Even when the long-range shot isn't falling, Dragic is skilled at finding other ways to put points on the board – and we see his Game 6 point prop as just too low, so we're siding with the Over.
PREDICTION: Goran Dragic Over 19.5 Points (-120)
Celtics vs Heat Betting Card
- Miami +3 (-110)
- Over 214 (-110)
- Goran Dragic Over 19.5 Points (-120)
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