We are in the final two weeks of the MLB regular season and as teams make their final push for the postseason, we look for some betting value in the baseball prop market.
Can Blue Jays starter Robbie Ray lock up the American League Cy Young Award with another strong performance against the Rays? Will the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta be able to cool down the high-flying Cardinals?
We answer those questions — and more — with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Monday, September 20
Today’s MLB props and picks
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (best odds: +130 at BetMGM)
It sort of feels like outfielder Juan Soto is the last man standing for the Washington Nationals after the team's sell-off at the trade deadline. But while the Nationals front office waved the white flag on the season months ago, don’t tell that to Soto — who is quietly putting a cap on a tremendous season.
Simply put, Soto has been a problem for opposing pitchers in September. The Nats’ slugger is hitting .426 with a 1.250 OPS in 18 games this month, which has raised his average for the season up to .315 and his OPS up to .990.
Soto, who has at least one hit in 15 of his 18 games played this month, should be able to stay hot as the Nationals open a series on the road against the Miami Marlins.
While the Bottom Feeders have shown some potential for the future there have been some growing pains this season. Tonight, they hand the ball to Jesús Luzardo, who just hasn’t found his groove since coming over from the A’s. The right-hander has pitched to a 6.75 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in nine starts since joining the Marlins.
And don’t let the fact this is a lefty-lefty matchup scare you away: Soto is actually hitting .305 with a 1.024 OPS against left-handed starters this season, so this is a great value to back him to go Over his total bases prop.
Robbie Ray Over 8.5 strikeouts (best odds: -115 at CoolBet)
The Toronto Blue Jays are not only making a strong push towards the postseason, but Robbie Ray is also homing in on the American League Cy Young Award.
Ray heads into tonight’s start against the Tampa Bays Rays as the new betting favorite to win the award for the AL’s best pitcher after New York Yankees starter Gerrit Cole got shelled in his last start. And it certainly helps that Ray has been throwing gas.
Ray has pitched to a 1.91 ERA, limited opponents to a .190 batting average, and is striking out a ridiculous 14.2 batters per nine innings over his last seven starts. That includes allowing just one run on four hits while striking out 13 over seven innings his last time out. Which was of course against this same Rays squad.
In fact, Ray has had the Rays number all season long (yes, I know that is confusing). In five starts against Tampa Bay this season, Ray owns a 1.85 ERA — and the Rays are hitting a .169 and striking out 12.2 times per nine innings.
Ray has gone Over this number in three of his five starts against the Rays and with Tampa's free-swinging mentality at the dish — combined with the way he is pitching right now — this is a number that is hard to say no to.
Freddy Peralta Over 17.5 outs recorded (best odds: -130 at BetMGM)
Freddy Peralta finally looked like his old self as he dominated the Detroit Tigers in his last start. Now, the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander will look to carry that over into their series against the surging St. Louis Cardinals, who are fighting for a National League wild-card spot.
The Cardinals are red-hot, having won eight games in a row, and currently hold a three-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds (and 3.5 games over the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres).
But if anyone can cool off the Cards, it’s Peralta.
The righty has made two recent starts against St. Louis but those weren’t an accurate representation of the pitcher Peralta has been this season. On August 18, he was pulled after just two innings with right-shoulder inflammation, which landed him on the IL. His return from the IL was also against the Cards, but the Brewers eased him into that one, only allowing him to throw 53 pitches.
Now, it looks like the reigns are off and Peralta is good to go after shutting out the Tigers on two hits over six innings. Prior to the injury, he was pitching to a 2.45 ERA while limiting opponents to a ridiculous .150 batting average. That includes seven innings of shutout, one-hit ball against St. Louis back on May 11.
While the Cardinals are flying high right now, they still rank a ho-hum 15th in batting average and 22nd in OPS when facing right-handed pitchers this season — which makes Peralta a great bet to pitch deep into this one.
MLB betting card for September 20
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at BetMGM)
- Robbie Ray Over 8.5 strikeouts (-115 at CoolBet)
- Freddy Peralta Over 17.5 outs recorded (-130 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 9/20/2021 at 10:58 a.m. ET
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