Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Mariner Mallet Hits Big Return

Met gains

There's only one way to describe the first half of the New York Mets season: a dumpster fire. The MLB’s highest payroll was good enough for a 42-48 record heading into the All-Star break. That’s fourth place in the National League East and a whopping 18.5 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves.

And they couldn’t be dealt a much tough hand coming out of the break as they welcome the surging Los Angeles Dodgers to town.

The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 17 games to climb back into a tie for first place in the NL West and are hoping starting pitcher Julio Urias can get his second half off on the right foot when he takes the ball for them tonight.

Urias was off to a solid if unspectacular start this season, pitching to a 3.61 ERA over his first nine starts. Then after a rough start on May 18, it was revealed that the lefty was dealing with a hamstring injury that sidelined him for the next month and a half.

He returned to the Dodgers rotation on July 1 and it wasn’t his best work, but his final start before the break showed signs of getting back to his old self, pitching six innings of two-run, three-hit ball while striking out eight against the Pirates. So, definitely something to build off of heading into the second half and I think we can expect a solid performance from him tonight.

Part of the reason for that is, of course, the Mets. They stink. Against southpaws, they really stink. New York ranks 25th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 17th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

In the 10 starts where Urias has been fully healthy, he averages 23.2 batters faced and 88.9 pitches thrown. He's gone Over 16.5 outs in nine of those 10 occasions. I’m betting he does so again tonight.

Julio Urias prop: Over 16.5 outs recorded (-105)

Corb Your Enthusiasm

Something is just not right with Corbin Burnes. The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander and former Cy Young Award winner is having his worst year as a starter, and now he gets to come out of the All-Star break and deal with the Elly De La Cruz version of the Cincinnati Reds. You know, the good version.

From what I can tell, Burnes is having trouble with his cutter — the pitch he uses more than 52% of the time. The velocity is down a tick, but mostly it’s his control. It feels like Burnes is either finding too much or too little of the plate, instead of painting the corners like we’ve been used to the last few seasons.

As a result, the pitch is getting hit for a .258 expected batting average and a .427 expected slugging percentage. The cascading effect is that his strikeouts are way down this season. 

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2020 Burnes has struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings and 34.3% of the total batters he has faced. This season those numbers have plummeted to 8.6 and 23.1%.

Tonight, he takes the mound against the Reds, who have gone 23-8 since calling up De La Cruz and overtook the Brewers for first place in the NL Central in the process. The Reds rank sixth in batting average, second in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ over that stretch. 

They have also become a very patient team at the plate with the third-best walk-to-strikeout ratio and are striking out just 21.5% of the time.

Burnes made a start against the Reds just before the break and it went well, but four walks limited him to just six innings and six strikeouts. I expect a similar result tonight. His strikeout total is at 6.5 and with a tough matchup, six in six innings looks about right. Burnes should go Under this number. Something he has done in 10 of his 18 starts this season.

Corbin Burnes prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-110)

"Teoscar goes to..."

With the All-Star game in the rearview mirror, the Seattle Mariners can now focus on getting back in the postseason race, and they’ll have a chance to string together some wins as they welcome the Detroit Tigers to town coming out of the break.

Detroit hands the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. The southpaw has been the Tigers' best starter this season and they’re probably just hoping he keeps upping his trade value before the deadline at the end of the month.

Usually, a matchup like this would be one to avoid for the inconsistent Mariners bats, but there is at least one Seattle player looking forward to it: Teoscar Hernandez.

The Mariners slugger can certainly be inconsistent at times, just not against left-handers. Hernandez is hitting .293 with a .891 OPS when facing lefties this season and Rodriguez is a lefty he is familiar with. 

Both Hernandez and Rodriguez spent extended time in the American League East, and Henandez has been a tough out in this matchup. He has racked up eight hits in 19 career at-bats vs. Rodriguez, including two doubles and three dingers. That’s good for a .684 expected slugging percentage.

At plus money, Hernandez looks like a solid bet to go Over 1.5 total bases tonight.  

Teoscar Hernandez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)