Padres vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Sneaky Pitcher's Duel Potential

The San Diego Padres will look to build on a series-opening victory when they take on the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Saturday afternoon. 

The Padres (24-27) won Friday’s opener 5-1 behind 6.1 strong innings from starter Joe Musgrove. That made three straight losses for the Yankees (30-23), who are eight games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the highly competitive AL East.

New York will look to get back on track with the help of Luis Severino, who will be making just his second start of the season on Saturday. We’ll break down the matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Yankees on May 27.

Padres vs Yankees odds

Padres vs Yankees predictions

Luis Severino has been a key part of the Yankees rotation for much of his career, despite his limited availability over the last few years. That was the expectation again coming into 2023, until he suffered a strained lat in spring training that delayed the start of his season.

Severino finally got a chance to pitch in the big leagues last Sunday. He sparkled in his debut, giving up just one run on four hits over 4.2 innings against the Cincinnati Reds. It’s a small sample size, but Severino looks poised to add some stability to the Yankees rotation as they head into the summer.

The Padres won’t be outgunned on Saturday, though. San Diego will start Michael Wacha, the 31-year-old veteran righty they signed away from the Boston Red Sox in the offseason. Wacha is off to strong start in 2023, winning five games in nine starts for a Padres team that is under .500 on the year. 

Even that undersells how good Wacha has been as of late. In the month of May, he’s given up just one earned run over 25 innings of work. Over his last four starts, Wacha has been close to unhittable, throwing to a 0.720 WHIP for the month.

This sounds like the recipe for a pitching duel in the Bronx. Yet the expectation is that these teams will still score plenty of runs on Saturday. 

The Yankees have certainly been hitting better as of late. While they’re averaging 4.6 runs per game this season, right around the league average, that number is up to 5.35 runs in May. As Aaron Judge and other players have returned to the lineup, the Bronx Bombers have begun living up to their name. 

San Diego has been a bit more anemic, though it’s not entirely clear why. The Padres are scoring exactly four runs per game this season, ranking them among the worst offensive squads in the majors. Even with Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup, the Padres are scoring just 3.82 runs per game in May. Outside of Juan Soto, who has put up an impressive .917 OPS this year, San Diego’s lineup has been a disappointment.

Overall, these teams simply aren’t putting up the number of runs that justifies an Over/Under in the 8.5 range. Bettors are already starting to push the number down after it opened at a flat nine runs, and frankly, it’s still far too high. I’m taking the Under in this afternoon’s matchup.

My best bet: Under 9 (-110 at PointsBet)

Padres vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees opened today’s game as -136 favorites. The consensus line has moved to around New York -145, with nothing better than -142 to be found on the Yankees at any site. If you want to bet on San Diego, you can get odds as long as +130 by shopping around.

The Padres have been a disappointment this year for bettors, losing over 12 units on the moneyline so far. The Yankees have done well for the public, winning about five units on the season.

While San Diego scored an impressive win on Friday, they’re a deserving underdog today. While we can’t be entirely confident in what Severino will bring to the table, his history suggests he should be able to handle a struggling Padres lineup. San Diego has been particularly poor against righties, hitting just .212 with a .681 against righthanded pitching this year. 

Wacha will keep San Diego in the game, but the Yankees should have too much for the Padres on Saturday. New York has hit righthanded pitching reasonably well, and while Wacha has been great as of late, it’s hard to imagine he’ll shut down the Yankee lineup. I’m leaning towards backing the Yankees and Severino, either on the moneyline or the run line.

Padres vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under on today’s game opened at 9 runs. The consensus total has dropped to around 8.5, though you can still find 9 at some sites. If you’re more inclined to take the Over, you can find -110 at 8.5 runs at several different sites.

Both teams have played to the Under this year. The Under is 28-24-1 in Yankees games, while the Padres’ struggling offense has allowed the Under to hit in 34 of their first 51 games this season.

I’ve already outlined how the pitching matchup suggests that this game should lean hard to the Under. These teams aren’t scoring enough to justify a total this high against average pitching, let alone against the likes of Wacha and Severino. The Yankees have a better matchup, but even they aren’t crushing righthanded pitching, putting up a .237 batting average and a .719 OPS. That’s hardly anything to get excited about.

With two lineups that aren’t quite firing on all cylinders and two established pitchers on the mound, this game looks more like a pitching duel than a slugfest. I’m all over the Under on this afternoon’s game. 

Padres vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Michael Wacha (5-1, 3.58 ERA): Wacha has never been a Cy Young Award contender, but he’s been among the more reliable pitchers in the majors over the past decade. After a couple disappointing years, he rebounded well with Boston last year, going 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He’s throwing just as well in 2023, and has been unhittable in May, with a 0.36 ERA in four starts. Last time out, Wacha threw six shutout innings against the Red Sox, allowing just five hits.

Luis Severino (0-0, 1.93 ERA): After an injury setback in spring training, Severino had to wait longer than expected — and, seemingly, longer than he wanted to wait — before returning to the mound for the Yankees in 2023. He finally opened his season last Sunday against the Reds, and threw a solid 4.2 innings, allowing just one run on four hits in a 4-1 win for New York. Last season, Severino went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts.

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The Under is 17-5-1 in the Padres’ last 23 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Yankees

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