The first pitch coming out of the MLB All-Star break will happen between a pair of National League teams who entered the season with World Series aspirations but had underwhelming first halves. I am, of course, talking about the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Friars and Phils will open a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Friday night in what should be an intriguing matchup.
San Diego is doing the expected by handing the ball to Yu Darvish, while Philly is manipulating its rotation a bit by going with young southpaw Cristopher Sanchez. So, it’s no surprise the Padres are favorites but is there value with the Phillies as home dogs?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Phillies.
Padres vs Phillies odds
Padres vs Phillies predictions
The Phillies haven’t performed the way they would have liked, but at least they are in a wild-card spot. The Padres, on the other hand, might be the most disappointing team in baseball if neither the New York Mets nor St. Louis Cardinals existed.
One of the highest payrolls in baseball, a lineup and pitching staff full of talent, has amounted to just a 43-47 record, but the Padres were able to build some momentum heading into the All-Star break by winning five of their last six games.
Now, they’ll try to carry that over to the second half, and it starts with a good matchup vs. Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies.
Sanchez has been solid since joining the Phillies rotation in mid-June, pitching to a 2.14 ERA. But not all is as it seems for the left-hander. Those four starts came against the Oakland Athletics, the aforementioned Mets, Washington Nationals, and a slumping Tampa Bay Rays team.
And while the Padres have not done much right in the first half, they did perform decently when facing southpaws, ranking 12th in OPS and 11th in wRC+ in those matchups.
Just like the rest of his team, the first half did not go as planned for Yu Darvish. The right-hander’s 4.87 ERA was his highest since his first year with the Chicago Cubs back in 2018. But at least some of his struggles can reasonably be attributed to bad luck.
Darvish still does a good job of limiting hard contact. His .372 opponent-expected slugging percentage ranks in the 70th percentile in MLB. He is also striking out a solid 25.1% of the batters he faced this season. As a result, his expected ERA is more than a whole run lower at 3.68.
Shockingly, it’s the Phillies' inconsistent bats that have been holding them back. Philly ranks 12th in OPS and 15th in wRC+ against righties while having the 12th-highest K-rate vs. them this season. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but not what you would expect with the lineup they boast.
The edge in starters should make the Padres more than a -115 favorite here.
My best bet: Padres (-115 at DraftKings)
Padres vs Phillies same-game parlay
Padres ML
Under 10.5
Turner to record a hit
Machado to record a hit
As always, our same-game parlay starts with our best bet. But as noted above, I have a nice lean toward the Under as well and DK will give it to us a whole run higher in their SGP options so, 10.5 feels like a gift.
While I think this game is going to fall below the number that doesn’t mean it will be hitless, so I’m adding a player from each to get a hit.
Let’s start with the Phillies by selecting Trea Turner to get a knock. Turner’s first season in Philly hasn’t gone exactly to plan. But he has the skill to go on a heater at any moment. He also is 7-20 with two home runs in his career vs. Darvish. That’s good for a .382 expected batting average.
And we’ll close this SGP out with Manny Machado to get a hit. The Padres third baseman also got off to a slow start this season, but he started to find his groove before the break. He’s hitting .406 with a 1.472 OPS in the month of July and has a .338 batting average vs. lefties for the season.
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Padres vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Padres opened this National League matchup as high as -125 but the Phillies have seen the very early money as home dogs, bringing the Padres down to the -115 range.
As noted above, I like San Diego as a slight road favorite here. Darvish should be worth more to this line than he is getting currently priced at. Once they open, I would also take a look at the five-inning moneyline or run line depending on the price, and may even prefer that to the full game moneyline.
The Padres are a good bet to get out to an early lead but the Phillies have an edge when it comes to the respective bullpens. San Diego has a great closer in Josh Hader but getting to him can be an issue at times.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 9.5 and instantly looks at least a half-run too high. As I said, Darvish has been better than his ERA indicates, and the Phillies haven’t been the best at getting clutch hits vs. right-handers, ranking 26th in OPS.
Plus, Sanchez has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts and Philly has a bullpen that ranks sixth in xFIP to back him up. And even though the Padres are better vs. lefties, they still average just 4.7 runs per nine innings vs. them this season. The Under 9.5 is already juiced to -115 and I would grab it before it reaches 9.
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Trend to know
The Padres are 5-1 in their last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies
Padres vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, July 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.87 ERA): Darvish likely did not pitch up to his own expectations in the first half and was probably looking forward to the break. The right-hander had a 7.17 ERA over his last four starts.
Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 2.84 ERA): The Phillies are hoping they've found something in the 26-year-old southpaw. Sanchez made four straight starts for Philly leading into the break and allowed just five earned runs.
