Orioles vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cole Hard Truth

Two of the hottest teams in the American League will face off on Tuesday as the Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Yankees.

The Yankees (29-20) have won four straight, including a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. The Orioles (31-16) are coming off their own sweep, having taken three games from the Toronto Blue Jays this weekend.

While both teams are looking to move up the AL East standings, New York has a huge advantage on Tuesday with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound. We’ll break down what this means for today’s matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Yankees on May 23.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

Orioles vs Yankees predictions

Most of the attention in the AL East has been on the Tampa Bay Rays, who remain in first place after an incredible start to the season. But the whole division has been incredibly strong, with every team sitting above .500. And while the Rays may be the team to beat at the moment, it’s the Orioles who have been the biggest surprise of the season.

Everything seems to be coming together for a Baltimore team that is loaded with potential. Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander are pacing an offense that’s scoring an impressive 5.11 runs per game, while Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish have anchored a solid pitching staff that has been bolstered by one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Bradish gets the start for the Orioles on Tuesday. In only his second year in the majors, the 26-year-old seems to be coming into his own and has been especially good in his recent outings. In his last two starts, Bradish has given up just one earned run over 12.2 innings while striking out 11 batters and walking just one.

That said, Bradish will be outclassed on the mound on Tuesday. The Yankees are starting Gerrit Cole, their undisputed ace and one of the early favorites to win the AL Cy Young Award. Cole is undefeated on the season and has a 2.01 ERA, with only one truly poor start on the year. Nobody has been able to hit him outside of the Rays. 

As well as the Orioles have hit this year, they’ve been more pedestrian against righties. And as Cole is no normal righthanded starter, we can expect the Baltimore lineup to struggle to find opportunities against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The Yankees have been solid on offense themselves, scoring 4.61 runs per game. That number has only been improving as their lineup has gotten healthier. With Aaron Judge back, the team has — along with Anthony Rizzo — two power bats in the middle of the lineup that can provide instant offense at any moment. As good as Bradish has been this year, he could have trouble against a team with so many experienced and dangerous bats. 

With the Yankees playing at home and with Cole on the mound, New York is a deserving favorite in Tuesday. In fact, this is a game that the Yankees should win easily, even against a Baltimore team that has been exceeding expectations in 2023. I’m banking on Cole to shut down the Orioles lineup, and betting the Yankees on the run line tonight.

My best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+130 at Caesars) 

Orioles vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees opened as a -167 favorite in tonight’s game. That number hasn’t moved much, with the consensus moneyline odds now sitting around Yankees -170. The best numbers on the market are around +145 for the Orioles and -160 for New York.

Both teams have been great for bettors this year. While the Yankees may have been a bit disappointing in April, they’ve rebounded well, and have now made over 7.5 units on the moneyline this year. Baltimore has been even better and has played well above expectations, earning bettors nearly 16 units in 2023.

The biggest factor in this game is Cole, who has been outstanding in 2023. While Cole has been excellent for the Yankees since they brought him in for the 2020 season, this is the first year in which he seems to be hitting his full potential. Cole has given up just four homers on the season and has a 1.085 WHIP, giving opponents few openings to score against him. 

As good as Baltimore has been lately, it’s hard to see it doing much against Cole in Yankee Stadium. I’ve made the run line my best bet, but I also like the Yankees on the moneyline, as they really should go into this game as at least a -200 favorite with Cole on the mound. I’m definitely leaning towards the Yankees here no matter which bet you choose to make.

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s matchup opened at eight runs flat. As of noon on Tuesday, the Over/Under has dropped to 7.5 runs at nearly all sites. The Over is a slight favorite at most books, however: While you can get +100 at some sites on the Under, you won’t find better than -115 on the Over.

Baltimore has played slightly above its totals this year, with the Over going 24-20-3 in Orioles games. The Yankees have been the opposite, with the Under putting up a 26-22-1 record for New York.

We’ve talked a lot about the strong pitching matchup, as Cole is an absolute stud and Bradish has been solid in his second year. However, these teams are also both strong in the bullpen. The Yankees have the best bullpen ERA in the majors at 2.87, and the Orioles aren’t far behind at 3.03. 

With both lineups likely to face strong pitchers even after the starters have left the game, runs could be hard to come by on Tuesday, especially for Baltimore. While it’s scary to doubt these two lineups, I’m still leaning towards the Under tonight, especially if you can place a bet at a site where you’ll get even money on your bet.

Orioles vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Bradish (2-1, 3.90 ERA): Bradish has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles this year, improving on his rookie campaign in 2022. Outside of one shaky start against the Boston Red Sox last month, Bradish has been consistently solid, typically giving them five or six innings of good work. Bradish last threw on May 17 against the Los Angeles Angels, giving up just one run on four hits over 6.2 innings of work, his longest start of the season.

Gerrit Cole (5-0, 2.01 ERA): Already one of the best pitchers in baseball, Cole is having a vintage season in 2023. He hasn’t allowed a single home run to a team that doesn’t play in Tampa Bay, and has allowed just 6.9 hits per nine innings overall. While his strikeout numbers are down a bit, he’s still preventing opponents from hitting the ball hard off of him, and that has led him to consistent success this year. Cole last threw six shutout innings against the Blue Jays on May 17, but was saddled with a no-decision in that outing.

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