The New York Yankees will look to gain some more ground on the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East when the clubs continue their four-game series at Yankee Stadium on Independence Day.
Baltimore has just one win in its last six contests and will send Kyle Gibson to the mound. He’s been shelled in two straight starts and has just one victory in his last five outings.
Can Gibson rebound or will New York take its second straight over Baltimore? I break it all down in my Orioles vs. Yankees MLB picks and predictions below.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Orioles vs. Yankees picks for Wednesday, July 5.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees predictions
While the New York Yankees have struggled offensively without Aaron Judge, ranking tied for dead last in the majors over the last 30 days in runs scored (95), they've picked up the pace of late.
The Pinstripes are averaging 6.33 runs per game over their last six contests, scoring at least six runs in four of those outings and 4+ in five of them.
New York put up six runs in the series opener thanks in large part to a late three-run homer from Harrison Bader while Anthony Volpe and Kyle Higashioka also had productive nights with two hits and one RBI apiece.
Although the Yankees don’t have any standout performers of late, they’ve been scoring by committee with four batters recording five RBI over the last week.
On top of that, the Yankees will be facing a struggling starter in Kyle Gibson, who had an abysmal month of June. The right-hander was shelled for nine hits and six earned runs in his last outing against the Reds on June 28 and gave up seven hits and five earned runs over just three innings in the start prior.
For those reasons, I’d expect another decent offensive performance from the hosts this afternoon.
My best bet: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees TT Over 4.5 (+105)
Yankees ML (-120)
Anthony Volpe to record a hit (-150)
We’re going to load up on the Yankees for our same-game parlay, banking on at least five runs and a win for the hosts. A lot of my faith in New York comes down to the pitching matchup, where Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt posted a 3.04 ERA in June while Gibson put up a massive 6.84 ERA last month for the Baltimore Orioles.
We’re also going to bank on another hit from Anthony Volpe, which should be money in the bank. The 22-year-old enters play on an eight-game hit streak with 15 hits over that span. Volpe is batting .519 over the last week — the second-best mark in the majors behind only Tommy Pham (.591).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Yankees opened as the slight favorite at -114 on the moneyline and some books even had the clubs at nearly identical odds by Monday night. As stated above, I’m going to take the hosts in this one primarily due to their pitching edge as well as the fact that Baltimore really hasn’t been good of late.
The Orioles are 1-5 over their last six games, averaging just 2.33 runs over that span while being held to two runs or fewer in four of those six contests. The Yankees also hold a significant edge in this matchup, winning 23 of the last 32 meetings at home.
The total opened at 9 runs and is hovering around either 9 or 8.5 depending on which book you go to. Based on how these offenses have trended, the Under looks like the play to me.
While the Yankees have regained some offensive rhythm, I’d be hesitant to expect an explosive performance from them without any real star power at the plate right now. The Orioles, of course, have been even worse at the plate, with their 14 runs over the last seven days ranking 30th in baseball.
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Trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Schmidt’s last four home starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.66 ERA): Gibson had a pretty strong start to the year, winning four of his first five starts and posting a sub-4.00 ERA in both April and May. Things have come crashing down for the right-hander of late, though, as he’s given up 17 earned runs over his last four outings.
Clarke Schmidt (3-6, 4.37 ERA): Schmidt has improved as the season has progressed, with June being his strongest month of the year so far. The right-hander has held his opponents to two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of those appearances.
