There isn’t a ton to cheer about when it comes to the Toronto Blue Jays at this point except for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and he’ll look to stay red-hot when he and the Jays host the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez for the opener of this three-game set. Does he have any shot of cooling off Vladdy? My Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB picks for this AL East matchup.
Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays won’t be happy to see the Baltimore Orioles again so soon. The two AL East rivals played four games last week with the O’s taking three of four with a +12 run differential.
Baltimore teed off on Toronto starter Chris Bassitt in the finale of that series, and guess who gets the ball for the Blue Birds in the opener?
It’s been a bit of a subpar year for the 34-year-old with the seemingly limitless arsenal of pitches. Bassitt owns a 4.30 expected ERA while surrendering a .260 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 37th and 27th percentile, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
Despite this, Bassitt has arguably been the Jays' most reliable pitcher this season (which says a lot about the current state of the team), but Baltimore had his number last time out. The Orioles tagged Bassitt for five runs on nine hits in just four innings of work.
It was also the fourth time in five starts Bassitt was unable to complete more than five innings. That means extra work for a depleted and struggling bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA and 28th in xFIP.
The Orioles counter Bassitt with Grayson Rodriguez. The 24-year-old right-hander has great stuff and can rack up the strikeouts, but he isn’t unhittable.
Rodriguez is pitching to a 3.74 xERA and a .236 opponent xBA which rank in the 58th and 60th percentile, respectively. Additionally, when Rodriguez get hit, he gets hit hard. He ranks in the 46th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.
And forgive me if I’m wrong, but I believe the Jays have a few guys who can hit the ball hard. They did that in Rodriguez’s last start where he allowed four runs (three earned) on six hits — including a home run — over six innings vs. Toronto in his last start.
Rodriguez has the edge here, but I like the Blue Jays to do enough damage against him in order to send this game Over the total, something these teams have played to in six of the last eight meetings.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Speaking of Blue Jays who hit the ball hard, none do that better than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Toronto’s All-Star first baseman enters this matchup on an incredible 17-game hitting streak where he has a crazy .500 batting average and a 1.683 OPS with nine dingers and 18 RBI. That’s silly stuff.
It also includes Vladdy going 9-for-16 with six extra-base hits in last week’s series against the O’s. He also has solid career numbers against Rodriguez. He is 5-for-14 with a double and a dinger vs. the Baltimore right-hander. In the latest matchup, he went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI.
Vladdy has been the epitome of run production lately, recording at least one RBI in 13 of his last 20 games. Yet, we are still getting great value on him to drive in another one tonight. At this price, our Covers Prop Projections have Over 0.5 RBI for Vladdy as a five-star play.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays live odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+115) | Toronto +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -140 | Toronto +120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Orioles vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as +120 home underdogs and it's the Orioles who have seen the early action with Toronto moving to the +125 range.
- The Blue Jays continue to struggle against the Orioles, having lost six of the last nine meetings, including both matchups that Rodriguez has started.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where the number remains as of late Tuesday morning.
- The combination of the Blue Jays' bats coming around and the bullpen being a disaster have meant they have been on quite the Over run across the last couple of months. The Orioles are 15-2 to the Over since the All-Star break.
Orioles vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Over in 43 of their last 68 games for +18.65 Units and a 25% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN2, Sportsnet |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (8-10, 4.02 ERA) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Orioles vs Blue Jays weather
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