The Toronto Blue Jays will look to split the four-game set with the division-leading Baltimore Orioles as Jack Flaherty debuts for the visitors while the home squad rolls with Kevin Gausman, who got back on track in his last start. The Jays sit as -165 home faves for the matinee with a total of 8.
With the state of the Toronto offense, a pitcher-friendly umpire, and a pair of plus-framers behind the plate, could today’s Under 8 be a sweat-free winner?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Jays for Thursday, August 3.
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions
It's a getaway day for both the Jays and Orioles and with Kevin Gausman back to form and the Jays’ bats hitting just .200 over the last seven days, it’s time to smash the Under 8 today at the Rogers Center.
Gausman had been dealing with a velocity dip for most of July but those numbers are pointing up after his last start at home vs. the Angels. Gausman is arguably the best pitcher in the American League and another strong outing here could certainly shorten up the gap between him and Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young race.
Kevin Gausman saw a pretty significant drop in velo in his start before the ASB and that has continued for two more starts
— Josh Inglis (@Covers_josh) August 3, 2023
But it seems to be building back up and could be behind him today vs. Baltimore pic.twitter.com/NjdZqXoc0G
Gausman went eight innings vs. this Baltimore lineup early this year (two runs on six hits and a pair of walks) and his splitter misses more bats at home as his 37% K% at Rogers Center is elite. It’s always a little odd when opposing batters spit on his splitter constantly when the right-hander is on the road.
Gausman can keep the O’s in line and the Jays’ bullpen on a six-out max but the newly-acquired Jack Flaherty also has a decent matchup vs. a cold offense.
Flaherty will be making his Orioles debut after coming over from the Cardinals at the trade deadline. He is a groundball pitcher who keeps the ball in the yard and has a very high BABIP (.345), which should regress. His H/9 is high because of it. The right-hander posted a 3.03 ERA across five July starts and faces an offense that has Whit Merrifield and Brandon Belt at the top of the order while the big bats behind them have disappeared.
Over the last 15 days, George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, and Dalton Varsho are a combined 36-for-207, which equates to a paltry .174 batting average. That was basically the top of the order at the beginning of the season, excluding Bo Bichette, who is out with an injury.
Jim Wolf is behind the plate and he’s regarded as a pitcher’s umpire. Those zones tend to expand on afternoon getaway games while both Alejandro Kirk and Adley Rutschman are rated plus-framers.
Toronto has also returned a 25% ROI over its last 56 games on the Under.
There is a lot to like about this Under this afternoon.
My best bet: Under 8 (-115 at SIA)
Orioles vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Under 8.5 (-135)
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (-155)
George Springer Under 0.5 hits (+210)
I'm leaning into a low-scoring game today and eating some of the hold on these correlated plays with the true odds being +730.
There are no flat numbers on the total for bet365 SGPs so I've gone even more cautious by taking the Under 8.5 at -135 compared to the 7.5, which would have made the SGP +625.
Gausman has a 37% strikeout rate at home and the Orioles have some swing-and-miss in their bats. The Toronto starter has topped this number in eight of his 10 home starts and projects for 7.38, per THE BAT.
Springer is not seeing the ball at all and has one hit over his last nine games. He is 0-for-6 over his career vs. Flaherty and has moved down the order.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Toronto moved to 2-6 SU vs. the Orioles this season after a 4-1 win last night where the Jays managed just three hits in the victory. That makes a total of just 13 hits across the first three games of the series as the Jays’ bats continue to frustrate fans and bettors alike.
Despite the slumping offense, Toronto opened as long as -150 before moving to -165 by this morning. The move is more geared towards the starting pitching matchup the Jays have as Gausman looks to be back to form while Flaherty will be making his first start for the O’s since being acquired from the Cards.
Gausman had been dealing with some side discomfort, which resulted in serious velocity dips in all his pitches in his 19th and 20th starts. He got things back on track vs. the Angels in an 18-out, nine-K outing last Friday where he got the velo a little closer to his season averages. He’s seen Baltimore once this season and went eight innings of two-run ball in an 8-3 loss, which sums up the run support the Jays give their ace.
Toronto has lost 10 of Gausman’s 21 starts on the year and has finished with four or fewer runs in 14 of those games. The right-hander has been better at home, especially with the punchouts, as he has 94 Ks over 65-plus innings.
Ultimately, without Bichette, I don't trust this offense to beat up on a groundball pitcher in Flaherty and then take on that elite Baltimore bullpen.
Springer is 1-for-34 over his last nine games, Guerrero is hitting .204 over his last 15, Merrifield and Belt led off the order yesterday, Chapman is 4-for-23 over the last seven days, and the team is hitting .200 over the last week.
With Gausman back to form, the Jays’ bats ice cold, and a getaway environment, I’m locking in the Under 8 at -120 or better. Gausman can get deep today, which should make up for the Jays' issues in the bullpen and even if Flaherty gets fewer than 18 outs, the visiting bullpen is rested and used their lower leverage arms yesterday.
The Jays have a 25% ROI on the full game Under across their last 56 games.
The Under 8 at -115 at SIA is a strong play. Other plays I see projecting well are Springer Under 0.5 hits at +210 and Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 total bases at +130.
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Trend to know
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+15.35 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, August 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Jack Flaherty (7-6, 4.43 ERA): Flaherty will be making his first start for the Orioles since being traded from St. Louis. The veteran right-hander has made 20 starts this year and carries a 106/54 K:BB rate over 109-plus innings with 10 home runs allowed while allowing more than a hit per inning. He’s a groundball pitcher with a .345 BABIP and keeps the ball in the park. His team is 13-7 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 95 pitches, 16.3 outs, 5.15 strikeouts, and 3.19 earned runs.
Kevin Gausman (8-5, 3.10 ERA): Gausman is making his 22nd start of the year and his third since the All-Star break when he missed a start with side discomfort. His velocity is down over a three-game stretch but seems to building up and could be back all the way today. He has a 171/32 K:BB rate over 127-plus innings with 14 home runs allowed. He currently leads the American League in strikeouts and is the No.2 betting favorite for the AL Cy Young at +400. The Jays are just 11-10 when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 103 pitches, 18.9 outs, 7.38 strikeouts, and 2.74 earned runs.
