Mets vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Sale Stays Sharp for Surging BoSox

The Red Sox have won six in a row heading into their series finale with New York. They will hand the ball to Chris Sale, who has a 2.40 ERA in six starts since returning from Tommy John. Find out why we like Boston -1.5 in our Mets vs. Red Sox picks.

Last Updated: Sep 22, 2021 1:22 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Chris Sale Boston Red Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The surging Boston Red Sox will go for their seventh consecutive win when they wrap up a mini two-game set with the New York Mets at Fenway Park on Wednesday night. 

Boston has bounced back from a rough August to go 12-6 in September and it enters tonight's contest with a 1.5-game lead for the first wild-card spot in the American League. The Red Sox will deploy lanky lefty Chris Sale tonight and are large MLB betting favorites as they go for a lucky seventh win in a row. 

Find out who we like in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Red Sox on September 22.

Mets vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (7-10, 4.27 ERA): Walker's season has been a tale of two halves, as he looked like one of the best free-agent signings of the offseason prior to the break but he's been battered since. The righty has a 7.04 second-half ERA and has been destroyed by the long ball, serving up six over three September starts in which he has allowed 13 runs in 15 1-3 innings.

Chris Sale (4-0, 2.40 ERA): The southpaw has made six starts since returning from Tommy John surgery and has thrown well, putting up a 2.40 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all of his outings and only had one bad start, allowing six runs (one earned) on 10 hits to the Rays two weeks ago.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: None.
Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Boston is 5-0 in the last five games versus the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Red Sox.

Run line pick

The Red Sox are back in the driver's seat after allowing the Blue Jays and Yankees to catch up and surpass them in the wild-card race. But Boston is now once again on top with 10 games remaining, which includes six straight to close out the season against the last-place Orioles and Nationals. The Sox are in a good spot thanks to a September rebound that has seen the club continue to hit the ball well but also get good pitching out of its staff, which has put up a 3.87 ERA this month, the second-best mark in the AL.

One of those arms helping lift the team to a potential postseason berth is Sale, the former ace who missed all of last season and didn't return until August as he recovered from Tommy John. Sale might not be prime Sale anymore — at least not yet — but he's a massive addition to a Red Sox rotation that has been unstable outside of Nathan Eovaldi. 

Sale, once one of the game's most electrifying arms, has been strong in his return while working on a bit of a shorter leash (he has hit the six-inning mark once and has only topped 90 pitches once). Boston has won five of the six games Sale has started and his velocity has still been strong while the wipeout slider has remained deadly. While the whiffs are down from the eye-popping numbers he was accustomed to posting, he's still punching out batters at a slightly above-average clip. 

He'll get to feast on a weak Mets offense that has been unable to do much damage against lefties this season, ranking 24th in both slugging and OPS with a Top 10 strikeout rate. 

It's not worth touching the Red Sox on the moneyline at a -170 to -190 price tag and this is a terrible matchup for Walker, so we're backing Boston at plus money on the run line. The club has won each contest of its six-game win streak by multiple runs. 

PREDICTION: Boston -1.5 (+110)

Over/Under pick

This is another good spot for Sale to throw five solid innings of limited damage before turning it over to a Red Sox bullpen that has the best ERA in the majors over the last two weeks. That's probably not a reflection of how good they really are, as the group has struggled this season, but the results have been there and the Mets' lineup isn't imposing. 

On the other hand, Walker can't be trusted right now — especially not at Fenway. He has been lit up in the second half and allowed two-plus bombs in six of his last 10 starts. He held opposing hitters to a .573 OPS in the first half but that number has soared to .862 in 11 second-half starts and he has allowed triple the amount of dingers... in six fewer outings. There's nothing to like with him right now and the Fenway environment against a red-hot BoSox team is not a get-right spot for him.

We'll hit the Over on Walker's hits and earned runs pitching props and Boston's team total, but we're not confident New York can do enough against the Red Sox's staff to push this number into double digits. 

The Under is 4-0-2 in the last six meetings in Boston and we're going to back it again tonight.

PREDICTION: Under 9.5 (-115)

Mets vs Red Sox betting card

  • Boston -1.5 (+110)
  • Under 9.5 (-115)

Picks made on 9/22/2021 at 11:44 a.m. ET

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