Giants vs Mets Picks and Predictions: New York Closes Series With a W

There are 10 games on the MLB betting board today including a slew of afternoon contests beginning with an NL showdown between the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets.

Both of these teams are looking like World Series contenders and oddsmakers are having a tough time separating them today with the Mets installed as slim -135 home favorites.

Here are our best free Giants vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for April 21, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.

Giants vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Mets installed as -120 favorites with the Over/Under at 7.5. Early money has come in on the Mets, shifting the line to -140 while the total has stayed steady. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Mets predictions

• Prediction: Mets ML (-140)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-114)
• Best bet: Mets F5 -0.5 (+100)

Picks made on 4/21/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Giants vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-BAY, SNY

Giants vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Anthony DeSclafani RHP (0-0, 4.32 ERA): The right-hander has been up-and-down to start the year. He surrendered eight hits before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning against the Marlins on April 10 and gave up two runs in 4 2-3 innings versus the Guardians on Saturday. The 32-year-old had a banner season in 2021, posting career-best numbers in ERA (3.17), WHIP (1.09), and OBA (.225).

Carlos Carrasco RHP (0-0, 0.84 ERA): Carrasco has been lights out to start this season despite a lack of run support (sounds like someone else we know). He held the Nationals to two hits and one run in 5 2-3 innings in his first start of the year before pitching five innings of shutout ball against Arizona on Saturday. It's been a long road back for "Cookie" who is once again looking like the quality starter that he was in Cleveland before he was diagnosed with leukemia in 2019. The 35-year-old struggled in 12 starts with the Mets last year after coming back from a torn hamstring. He seems fully recovered from that and also underwent successful surgery to remove a bone fragment from his elbow that had been affecting him for years. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Giants: Evan Longoria 3B (Out), Tommy La Stella 2B (Out).
Mets: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 5-1 in their last six games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for GiantsGiants vs. MetsMets.

Giants vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Giants beat the Mets 5-2 last night thanks to another sterling performance from Carlos Rodon. That allowed the Giants to rebound from back-to-back losses in the first two games of this series and improved their overall record to 8-4.

The Giants were baseball's biggest surprise last season finishing with an MLB-best 107-55 record despite entering with a projected O/U win total of just 73.5 from oddsmakers.

The Mets could be looking at a similar rise after winning just 77 games last year but currently sit at 9-4 with the fourth-best World Series futures odds. A big reason for that turnaround has been the play of their rotation, which is dominating even without Jacob deGrom.

Carlos Carrasco will toe the rubber today and the veteran looks to have bounced back from an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. He has allowed just five hits and one run while fanning 13 batters in 10 2-3 innings this season. The Mets lineup has also shown massive improvement and they currently sit seventh in the majors with an OPS of .738. 

The Giants are 15th in the majors with an OPS of .671 as they try to recapture their batting magic of last season with Evan Longoria injured and Buster Posey now retired. Their success this season has also been largely due to their rotation but today's starter Anthony DeSclafani has actually been a weak link despite a breakout season last year. 

DeSclafani has allowed four runs in 8 1-3 innings and most concerning has been his OBA of .375 and his rising hard-hit rate. It's also worth mentioning that his numbers last season were an outlier for the 32-year-old. After the All-Star break, he posted a middling 4.03 ERA and .266 OBA in 13 starts. 

We'll back the home team that is currently looking better both at the dish and on the mound. 

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-140 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Carrasco has been incredible and while he looks to have recaptured his peak form from a few years ago, his current level of play is simply unsustainable long-term. Keep in mind that even in his prime from 2016 to 2018, he posted an ERA of 3.33 which is very good but still a big difference from his numbers so far this year. 

Although the Giants have been a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of batting average and OPS, they are fifth in the majors in hard-hit rate while ranking sixth in barrels per plate appearance. If they continue to make good contact and hit the ball hard, runs are bound to come.

Meanwhile, DeSclafani was due for regression after his ERA of 3.17 last year was 0.75 runs better than his expected ERA of 3.92.

He'll be facing a formidable Mets lineup that is finally playing up to its potential with Pete Alonso slugging dingers and Francisco Lindor living up to that big contract he signed last year. We're leaning towards the Over on a lower total.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-114 at SportsInteraction)

Best bet

We're leaning towards the Mets on the moneyline but we like them even more to have the lead after five innings.

We've already mentioned why we don't have much faith in DeSclafani and with Carrasco playing so well, the Mets should be able to get off to a fast start at home while the west coast Giants could find it tough being awake for this early contest. 

In addition, one reason which makes us nervous about backing New York on the full game moneyline is the incredible play of the Giants bullpen, which was the best in the majors last year and has a 1.93 ERA this season.

Let's take that dominant bullpen out of the equation and take the Mets on the run line in the first five innings. 

Pick: Mets first five innings -0.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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