Dodgers vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Kremer Gives Up Early Edge

The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers will conclude a three-game set this afternoon. 

The Dodgers have dominated this series. They rallied for a thrilling victory in Game 1, then blew out the Os last night. It was a reasonably loud statement by LA, considering that Baltimore came into this series riding the longest winning streak in baseball. The Dodgers have stormed ahead in the NL West by 1.5 games over the San Francisco Giants. Meanwhile, the Orioles continue to look up at the same team they have all year, the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Dodgers on Wednesday, July 19th.

Dodgers vs Orioles odds

Dodgers vs Orioles predictions

There are a few teams in baseball that are near-disasters to see when you're a pitcher with a hard-hit issue. One of the best offenses in baseball, the Atlanta Braves, is one, but another is the Los Angeles Dodgers. That's a problem for Dean Kremer, who will take the mound for Baltimore this afternoon. We're going to target that with our best bet. The best value on that front is the team total Over.

Two teams in baseball rank in the Top 3 in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. One is the Braves team, and the other is the one we'll see today. That's not good news for Kremer. His issues this season have been primarily centered around the hard-hit ball. That's why he ranks in the Bottom 20% of metrics such as exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. It's a natural strength on weakness, which the Dodgers should be able to take advantage of in a big way.

My projection for this game had L.A. scoring 6.2 runs, and the Dodgers' offense has ticked up lately. It has exceeded this number in the first two games of this series, which is an improvement on the five runs it averaged on the season.

Outside of the matchup for Kremer, the conditions for him to pitch in should be rough. It will be another hot, humid day in Baltimore, with winds blowing out to center field like they have much of the series. The Dodgers are behind one team in baseball (surprise, it's the Braves) in home runs per game. They have the perfect matchup and conditions to knock a few out of the park today. This is just a nightmare situation for Kremer tonight. 

Grab the Dodgers team total Over tonight. This team has come out of the All-Star break with enhanced focus. In addition, they have owned this series, and it's hard to see that changing today with their best pitching matchup of the series. 

My best bet: Dodgers team total Over 5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Dodgers vs Orioles same-game parlay

Dodgers team total Over 5.5

Martinez to hit a homerun

Freeman to record an RBI

+1,400 at bet365

We're going for a moonshot today on our same-game parlay. bet365 doesn't let you add a flat team total to its same-game parlay, but we're comfortable with the value 5.5 gives us. Then, after that, we're targeting Kremer on the mound in a big way. 

I've spoken about favorable conditions for the long ball today, and JD Martinez may be the best to profit from that. Kremer throws some version of the fastball over 60% of the time, and we're simply taking the player who hits those pitches the hardest. That's J.D. Martinez. He's posted a hard-hit rate of 60% against fastballs this season which is the best of any Dodger in today's lineup. 

We're finishing and pairing that with Freddie Freeman to record an RBI. He has one of the best run values in baseball against the fastball this season at +21. It's also comfortably the best on the entire Dodger roster. In addition, he's recorded an RBI in half of his last 20 games, giving us some raw value on the number of +150.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis

While the value lies with the Dodgers team total, I indeed lean toward the Dodgers winning today. The question that has to be asked is whether you back them on the spread or outright moneyline. The best price upon publication for the L.A. moneyline was -148. That's a bit hefty for me, so it's the run line or nothing. You can find Dodgers -1.5 for around -115. 

A phenomenon that has surrounded the Dodgers for a few years now is that they typically win games by multiple runs when they win them. As a favorite, the Dodgers have the second-best cover rate in the league. They've done this for multiple years in a row now, finishing last season first in that category and fourth the season before that. If you have a side here, it's the Dodgers spread or nothing for me.

I will avoid a side here on the total as I'm already exposed enough with isolating the Dodgers team total. From an anecdotal perspective, I wonder if the Orioles are ready to move past this series. Sure, they can score against Julio Urias, but it's not the best matchup, and he may have turned a corner lately. That gives me pause on exposing myself to a full game total here. The trends indeed point to more run-scoring, though. These are two of the best Over teams in baseball, and the first two games of this series have gone Over. 

Trend to know

The Dodgers have scored Over 5 runs in the first two games of this series. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Orioles

Dodgers vs Orioles game info

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (7-5, 4.35 ERA): From an ERA perspective, it's been close to the worst season of Urias' young career. From an expected ERA perspective, he's been unlucky, with a number below 4. There's an interesting dynamic at play with Urias. He has a chase rate in the Top 20% of baseball but a whiff rate in the Bottom 30%. The translation is that Urias is getting good chase & misses on his pitches, but batters are making contact when they are in the zone. Urias comes in today off a spotless 6-inning start against the New York Mets. He allowed just one hit in that start as well. 

Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.59 ERA): Kremer is a bit opposite of Urias. His career has been littered with a high expected ERA, and currently, if the season ended today, he'd have the best actual ERA of his career. Regression is coming, though. The metrics that Kremer holds just aren’t sustainable to the numbers he's had. Barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging, among others, are all in the Bottom 20% of baseball. 

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