Brewers vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Harper Comes Out Swinging in Series Opener

After a day off yesterday for both clubs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies open up a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park tonight. Aaron Nola opposes Julio Tehran as a hefty -210 home favorite in the MLB odds with a total of 9.5. 

With Teheran looking more like the pitcher he’s projected to be over his last two starts before the break and the wind blowing out to right field, is today a solid day to load up on some of the left-handed bats of the Phillies?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Phillies for Tuesday, July 18.

Brewers vs Phillies odds

Brewers vs Phillies predictions

Bryce Harper finally got the proverbial monkey off his back last weekend as he hit his first home run in 166 plate appearances, which was a career-worst drought. Despite the lack of power, the Phillies DH and soon-to-be first baseman has been raking at the dish, hitting .385 with a .615 SLG over 11 games in July. He has also owned Julio Teheran over his career.

Teheran is starting to finally show some projected cracks in his game, as he has allowed 13 runs over his last two starts. He faces the Phillies with solid hitting conditions that favor the left-handed hitters, while Harper has seen him 47 times and is hitting .404 with nine home runs vs. him over his career. 

Harper has seven multi-hit games in his last 11 starts and has recorded more than two bases in eight of them. THE BAT is projecting 2.11 total bases, the second-highest next to fellow left-handed-hitter Kyle Schwarber. Both players’ Over 1.5 total bases are showing value in a great matchup, but it’s hard to overlook the success Harper has had against Teheran over a decent sample size of 47 at-bats when choosing between the two. 

He’s rested, the weather conditions are in his favor, and he owns Teheran over his career. Harper could also see plenty of the Brewers bullpen with Teheran not projected to get deep. A sighting of J.C. Meija with his 13.50 ERA would be great to see in the middle innings.  

Harper is also getting to ready to play a defensive position (first base) in this series for the first time since April of last year, so there will be some excitement in the former MVP. I’m playing this to -125.

My best bet: Harper Over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Brewers vs Phillies same-game parlay

Harper Over 1.5 total bases

Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases

Brewers team total Under 3.5

+600 at bet365

I'm getting slightly better than true odds (+593) here with this trio of plays that are not correlated. Both hitters are left-handed bats that have a great matchup vs. the right-handed Teheran with winds blowing out to right field. Harper has been on fire this month and is hitting over .400 with nine home runs vs. the Milwaukee starter over his career (40-plus at-bats).

Schwarber projects to get the most bases this game, per THE BAT, at 2.41 as the lefty leadoff hitter could see five plate appearances in a game that Teheran is projected to give way to a bullpen early. The Milwaukee starter currently has no out markets.

Aaron Nola has been a better pitcher at home than on the road this year, and the Brewers are a high K% team that is missing Rowdy Tellez and Brian Anderson. The bottom of this order is weak, too. Nola has a long leash and can mask some middle-relief injuries the Phillies are dealing with if he can get 19-plus outs.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brewers vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Phillies opened as -210 home favorites, briefly hit -220 at bet365, and then moved back to the opening price of -210 by this morning.  

The total also took some action, with plenty of Over money coming in early after opening at 9 and hitting 9.5 quickly after. 

Looking at injuries, the Brewers are missing a middle-of-the-order bat in Rowdy Tellez, who remains out. Brian Anderson is also out, making one of the highest K% teams in baseball much worse despite a four-game winning streak. The Phillies are at full health in terms of offense, and the injuries to relievers Jose Alvarado and Serathony Dominguez are mitigated with the expected distance that Nola is going to go in terms of total outs.  

Milwaukee has recorded three shutouts over their current four-game winning streak, but with Teheran on the mound, it’s unlikely that type of baseball will continue tonight. The veteran right-hander was pitching above his numbers early in the season but regressed before the break and allowed 13 runs over his last two starts. 

Teheran hasn’t pitched since July 6 and the Brewers might not be using their strength — their Grade-A bullpen — if the starter leaves and the Phillies are up by two or more. 

The weather is also favoring the better offense in the Phillies, with mid-to-high temps in the 80s and an 8-mph wind blowing out to right field that helps lefty Philly bats (Harper, Schwarber, and 75% of the bottom of the lineup). 

Ultimately, the -210 price is too much in a game where Nola has shown some inconsistencies. With the total sitting a little high for my liking, the move from 9 to 9.5 has sapped some of the Philly team total Over value as well. 

I’m off this side and total entirely, but if I had to choose something, it would be to fade the Milwaukee offense and hit the team total Under 3.5 (+105 at Pinnacle). The injuries to Tellez and Anderson hurt, and if Nola is dealing, he can make up for some middle-relief injuries the home side is dealing with. 

Trend to know

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies

Brewers vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Julio Teheran (2-3, 3.64 ERA): Considering he came from the Mexican and Independent Leagues, Teheran has performed well but possibly above his numbers. He started to wilt before the All-Star break and allowed 13 runs over 11-plus innings over two starts. On the season, he has a 32/9 K:BB ratio over 47 innings with seven home runs (four coming two starts ago). The Brewers are 3-5 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 65 pitches, 10.8 outs, 2.71 strikeouts, and 2.88 earned runs.

Aaron Nola (8-6, 4.39 ERA): Nola enters his 20th start and has a 120/30 K:BB ratio over 119 innings. He’s getting more flyballs this year, which has led to a 6-point increase in his HR/FB rate from last season. His expected ERA and FIP are better than his actual numbers and the Phillies are 9-10 SU when he starts. He’s been better at home (3.40 ERA) and THE BAT projects for 103 pitches, 19.2 outs, 6.86 strikeouts, and 2.72 earned runs. 

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic