A pair of disappointing 30-27 teams will meet for a three-game set at Citi Field tonight as the New York Mets host the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets are a -135 home favorite, with a total of 8.5 on the MLB odds board.
With the weather warming up and the books possibly not adjusting the totals yet, should bettors be wagering on runs Friday night, especially with a pair of starters who have red flags?
Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Mets on June 2.
Blue Jays vs Mets odds
Blue Jays vs Mets predictions
Chris Bassitt was knocked around in his last start vs. a weak Minnesota lineup, and now heads to Citi Field to face a Mets offense that has underperformed to date, but finished with a Top-10 rating in WAR over the month of May.
Bassitt has also been a tough pitcher to trust on the road, as he has surrendered 25 runs over 33 innings as the visitor this season. He now has to face a lineup and team that knows his pitching tendencies well after a full season with New York last year.
He’s seen his spin rate drop slightly over his last three starts, and his 57/26 K/BB rate over 66 innings with 11 home runs isn't a great line compared to his sub-4.00 ERA. He also owns a .223 BABIP, which is bound to increase. His xERA is also over a full run higher than his true ERA.
Of all qualified pitchers with a 4.50 xERA or better, Bassitt’s 5.22 FIP is the highest of all 51 of them. Citi Field is going to be hot, and projects to have 9-mph winds blowing out to left field. His Under 17.5 outs is showing great value at plus money.
On the other side, Justin Verlander’s strikeout rate continues to decline, and he’s whiffed 22 batters over 30 innings this year. He’s 40 years old and is working his way back from a shoulder strain. He is only going to continue to drop off, and this isn't a great matchup vs. a Blue Jays lineup that is getting some more confidence in the top and middle of the order.
Add in a setting that favors the Over, and I’m projecting runs tonight, many of which could come in the earlier innings. On paper, this looks like a great pitching matchup, but there are underlying things that are indicating a lack of trust in both starters. Both offenses could be turning a corner in production, with the warmer weather likely not being as priced in here. This Over 8.5 could close at -120.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (-109 at SIA)
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Blue Jays vs Mets moneyline analysis
Toronto opened as a +120 road dog, and has shortened up slightly to +115.
The movement might have something to do with the lack of trust in Verlander, as he was roughed up mightily in his last start and hasn’t been missing many bats since returning from a shoulder issue.
Over his 30 innings, the 40-year-old pitcher has just 22 strikeouts. His K% sits at 18.2% on the season, and it’s a stat that has declined for four straight seasons, which isn’t surprising considering his innings pitched and age.
The lack of trust in Verlander is still not enough to jump on the Bassitt wagon and on the Jays moneyline, though. I think both pitchers are tough to put money on, and Bassitt has certainly been pitching above his numbers. He hasn’t had the same success on the road as at home with an ERA 3.30 points higher away from Rogers Center over six road starts.
Neither team has any bullpen issues in terms of availability and both offenses are starting to heat up, as Matt Chapman might be over a May slump and Pete Alonso keeps hitting nukes.
I think the current price is very efficient, and would rather look at derivate markets like both teams to score at least three runs at -120.
Blue Jays vs Mets Over/Under analysis
Hitting conditions will be great at Citi Field, with 80-degree temperatures and a 9-mph wind blowing out to left field.
I think there is a good chance of both starting pitchers giving up more than five runs combined, as THE BAT has Bassitt at 3.11 earned runs and Verlander at 2.74.
The Over 8.5 has seen a five-point movement, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this closed at -120 to the Over.
Bassitt has had walk issues and also home run problems, which are reflected in his abnormally high FIP. He’s allowed five total home runs over his last two starts — both on the road — and faces an offense that has hit the ninth-most home runs over the last 30 days.
Chapman could do some damage today versus a starter in Verlander who might not be the pitcher he was two years ago. The Toronto third baseman had a forgettable May, but has been hitting the ball hard again with three extra bases over his last two games. He's made the adjustments after the league adjusted to him following his hot April.
Neither team boasts an elite bullpen either, with the Mets sitting 29th in reliever WAR, and the Jays at 20th.
With the pitching matchup looking better on paper than it actually is, and the favorable hitting conditions, I’m keen on both the first 5 Over 4.5 at even money and the full game Over 8.5 at -110.
Blue Jays vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Friday, June 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (5-4, 3.80 ERA): Bassitt has been enjoying a solid season with the new club, but his elite stretch came to a screeching halt in his last outing, where he was tagged for seven runs on nine hits over four innings vs. the Twins. His underlying numbers suggest a pitcher who should be pitching worse than his 3.80 ERA is indicating, and he’s facing his former team in the Mets. THE BAT is projecting 96 pitches, 16.7 outs, 4.44 strikeouts, and 3.11 earned runs.
Justin Verlander (2-2, 4.80 ERA): Verlander will be making his sixth start of the season, and is coming off a poor performance in Coors Field where he gave up six earned runs and saw his ERA jump 1.2 points. His 22 punchouts over 30 innings are a little concerning. This is a 40-year-old coming off a shoulder strain and might not have the consistency he did a year ago. THE BAT is projecting 95 pitches, 17.6 outs, 5.83 strikeouts, and 2.74 earned runs.
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