The Toronto Blue Jays tookthe first two games against Houston, squeaking out both wins by just one run.
The Blue Jays have now won four straight and are 10-5 on the season. Meanwhile, the defending AL champs in Houston have been shaky out of the gate at just 6-8, and look to avoid the series sweep on Sunday.
Find out who we're taking to win in our free MLB picks and predictions.
Blue Jays vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened with the Astros as -135 favorites with the total set at 8.5, juiced to the Over at -120.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitc and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Astros predictions
Picks made on 4/23/2022 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, ATTSN-SW
Blue Jays vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 3.24 ERA): Kikuchi couldn't get through four innings in his Blue Jays debut against the Yankees on April 12. The Japanese southpaw struggled with his control and was hit around for two earned runs before he was taken out of the game. Kikuchi bounced back against the Red Sox this past week, allowing only three hits and one run in five innings, but still looked very shaky at times.
Luis Garcia (1-0, 2.79 ERA): Garcia has looked fairly good in his first two outings, although he did allow three runs in five innings against the Angels in his last start. The AL ROY runner up in 2021 pitched to a 3.48 ERA over 155 1-3 innings last season with 9.7 SO/9 rate.
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Out), Jake Meyers CF (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out), Ryan Pressly (RP).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Astros are 83-39 in their last 122 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros
Blue Jays vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Despite winning the last two meetings, Minute Maid Park has not been kind to the Blue Jays historically. Toronto is just 11-21 in their last 32 meetings in Houston.
Luis Garcia faced the Blue Jays once in 2021, strking out eight and allowing only three hits over six innings, including striking out Vladimir Guerrero Jr. twice. The Jays have been known to chase at the plate and Garcia could get his fair share of strikeouts in this one. This is not an ideal matchup for Toronto in the series finale with one of their weakest starters taking the rubber.
I have not been impressed by Kikuchi through his first two games, and now he faces a lineup that has fared well against him ever since he arrived in the MLB. A member of the Mariners for three seasons from 2019-2021, Kikuchi has allowed an above average team OPS of .814 to the Astros in 129 at bats.
In general, I'm not quite sure Kikuchi is even that good. Despite being named to the All-Star team last season, the former Japanese League star fell off a cliff in the second half of the season, sporting an alarming wOBA of .387 and ERA of 5.80.
Prediction: Astros ML (-135 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these two teams when playing at Minute Maid Park, and the famous "Crawford Boxes" in left field is set up for the Astros' bats to feed off of Kikuchi.
Despite Jose Altuve out of the lineup, the Astros heart of the order is who dominate him. Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel all have an OPS over 1.000 in 17+ at bats each versus the lefty.
Toronto also used two of their best high-leverage relievers yesterday, with Yimi Garcia pitching in the 8th and submarine right-hander Adam Cimber getting the save. If they're both taking this one off, we could see the Astros feed off some of the weaker Jays arms once Kikuchi presumably gets the hook.
As I'm writing this, the Blue Jays lead the MLB in home runs and and Charlie Montoyo's lineup are a right-hand dominant group. Although I think Garcia will keep Toronto in check for the majority of the game, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the likes of a Springer, Bichette, or Guerrero Jr. got a hold of one.
The Jays have yet to show their full offensive potential with Teoscar Hernandez injured, and are still averaging 4.0 runs per game. Once this thing gets to the bullpen, all bets are off.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
Third Baseman Alex Bregman has looked good lately, successfully getting on-base eight times over his last five games. Bregman hit a home run on Saturday against the Blue Jays, and now faces a pitcher that he has mashed over the years.
Bregman has a career slash line of .353/.476/.706 against Kikuchi and should be able to plate himself, as he also has Alvarez, Gurriel, and Kyle Tucker behind him in the order to help get him home.
Bregman has six runs in 13 games and I like him to make it seven in such a favorable pitching matchup for Houston.
Pick: Bregman Over 0.5 runs (-112 at Unibet)
