Astros vs White Sox ALDS Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Rodon Helps Chicago Avoid Elimination

Chicago's season is on the line Tuesday in what should be a pitchers' duel between Lance McCullers Jr. and Carlos Rodon. Find out why we like the ChiSox as slim home favorites in our Astros vs. White Sox picks for Game 4 of the ALDS.

Last Updated: Oct 12, 2021 10:48 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Carlos Rodon Chicago White Sox MLB
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The Chicago White Sox were able to stave off elimination in their American League Division Series by outslugging the Houston Astros 12-6 in Game 3.

But Game 4 getting pushed back a day made Chicago's chances of extending the season even harder as Lance McCullers Jr. now gets the ball for the Astros, while the Pale Hose stick with arguably their best starter in Carlos Rodon. So who has the betting edge in what should be an exciting pitchers' duel?

Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs, White Sox on Tuesday, October 11.

Astros vs White Sox odds

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Astros vs White Sox picks

Picks made on 10/12/2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Astros vs White Sox game info

Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Time: 2:07 p.m. ET

Astros vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16 ERA): McCullers’ hot stretch continued into the postseason as the right-hander dominated in Game 1, pitching 6 2-3 shutout innings while allowing just four hits and striking out four. 

Carlos Rodon (13-5, 2.37 ERA): Rodon bet on himself this offseason and boy did it pay off. The lefty finished the year with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP but he also has had to deal with injuries in the second half, making just six starts since August.

Astros vs White Sox series odds

Astros: -350
White Sox: +290


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: Rafael Montero RP (Questionable).
White Sox: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 10-4-1 in the White Sox's last 15 against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. White Sox.

Astros vs White Sox predictions

The White Sox saved their season by exploding for 12 runs in Game 3 against the Astros and they’ll need to keep swinging some hot sticks if they hope to force a winner-take-all Game 5.

That’ll be easier said than done against McCullers after he shut them down in Game 1, but the White Sox will counter with their best punch in Rodon. If there's someone who has a chance of shutting down that potent Astros offense, it’s the White Sox's southpaw.

The lefty has been effective all season long and he has bounced back well from his injury, pitching to a 1.93 ERA and limiting opponents to a .178 batting average since the start of August.

Rodon has also been one of the few lefties who has been able to limit the Astros this season. That’s in part because he mixes his pitches well and doesn’t only rely on his fastball when he gets in trouble.

In two starts against Houston this season, Rodon has limited the Astros to one run on four hits while striking out 18 (which is hard to do against a team that strikes out the least in the majors) over 14 innings of work. Rodon has also held the big Astros bats (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Yordan Alvarez) to just 17-for-84 (.202) over the course of his career.

Even though McCullers did a great job in Game 1, the White Sox still have a lineup you have to respect that ranks fifth in batting average and ninth in OPS when it comes to facing right-handed pitching. And despite some struggles this postseason, Chicago still has the bullpen edge. This means we’re siding with the home team as slight favorites.

Yes, there have been 38 runs plated over the first three games of this series, but it is a little surprising to see a total of 8.5 when you consider the starting pitching matchup. We already talked about how Rodon has a chance to shut down the Astros but McCullers is in a good spot to do so as well.

For starters, he made the Pale Hose sick for 6 2-3 innings in Game 1, shutting them out on just four hits. McCullers has now allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, pitching to a 2.16 ERA while limiting opponents to a .177 batting average over that stretch. 

Starting pitching should be the story in this one and the Under is the bet here. But in case either starter gets in trouble I would also look at the Under 4.5 (-120) five-inning total as well.

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