Angels vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Pitcher's Duel on the South Side

The Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox will wrap up their four-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field on Monday afternoon.

The Angels won yesterday's thrilling 6-5 game. Now the White Sox will be looking to split the series.

While they have high expectations for the season, Chicago has sputtered a bit out of the gates with 8-13. On the other hand, L.A. is looking as good as any team in baseball with a record of 15-8, which is the second-best mark in the American League.

Who will take this fourth and decisive game of the season series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Angels vs. White Sox on Monday, May 2nd.

Angels vs White Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today's matchup were released this morning with the White Sox listed as a muted -120 favorite and the Angels back at +100 on the moneyline. Chicago has since then taken more money and fallen to -125 at most places.

The total opened up at a flat 8. However, it has fallen to 7.5 at some spots and stayed the same at a few others by this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Angels vs White Sox predictions

• Prediction: Angels ML (+110)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-130)
• Best bet: F5 Under 4 (-120)

Picks made on 5/2/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Angels vs White Sox game info

• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, NBCS-Chicago

Angels vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Patrick Sandoval (1-0, 0.00 ERA): After an injury cut his season short last year, Sandoval looks poised to turn his fourth year into a career-best campaign. He has yet to give up a run through just over 15 innings. In that time, he's only given up nine hits. The majority of Sandoval's metrics are up compared to last season. But what's most impressive is his 1.88 expected ERA. Typically, this is a pitcher you'd like to peg for some regression, but that number ranks among baseball's best and causes you to pause.

Dylan Cease (2-1, 3.27 ERA): Cease may be the most unlucky pitcher in baseball so far this season. His expected ERA is 1.72, and he ranks in the Top 5% of baseball. Every single advanced metric is among the best of his career. Yet, despite all that, he's left with just a decent ERA. Cease has only made it past five innings once so far this season. He did so in his last start with two earned runs on just three hits through six innings. In the future, the fourth-year righty is primed for some significant positive regression from an earned runs perspective.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Angels: Matt Duffy 3B (Out), Shohei Ohtani SP/DH (Probable).
White Sox: Andrew Vaughn LF (Questionable), Yoan Moncada 3B (Out), Yermin Mercedes 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Angels are 6-0 in their last six games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. White Sox

Angels vs White Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a challenging game to handicap as it genuinely appears to be a 50/50 coin flip. Andrew Vaughn's status in the lineup looms large today. Though he's never had a plate appearance against Sandoval, he does profile as someone who could do well against him.

It does appear likely that Ohtani will be in the lineup as the Angels wait for him to get out of his slump. He left Sunday's game with groin tightness, but it was described as a precautionary measure. 

Ultimately, I have to roll with the Angels today, as it's simply a value play.

Despite virtually flawless numbers on the mound, Sandoval currently owns the worst ground-ball rate of his career. After back-to-back seasons of posting an eye-popping ground-ball rate of 51% and 55%, Sandoval is down to 27% this season. So, how has he done that while keeping both his actual ERA along with the expected ERA at such an impressive spot for so long? Well, he's producing a phenomenal whiff rate and inducing soft contact when the ball is put into play.

Sandoval isn't going to do it today the way he has this season. Chicago isn't going to whiff on many pitches, nor are they going to strike out a lot. They have the second-fewest strikeouts in baseball and have a lineup full of players that put the ball into play.

The good thing for the lefty is he doesn't have to do it that way. This is the odd circumstance where fewer strikeouts should be favorable for the southpaw pitcher. The White Sox are 9th in baseball in ground balls per plate appearance and Sandoval is due to produce more ground balls in a significant way. We can only reasonably assume he will find his way into some easy outs today.

It isn't easy to go against either pitcher today. I like both of these sides and think both have stuff working to their advantage. In what my projections call an actual 50/50 game, we have to side with value.

Prediction: Angels moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Today is an excellent spot for the Under.

First, the conditions in Guaranteed Rate Field aren't ideal for many runs. While the wind will be going out, it's only a slight wind, so it shouldn't be a major factor in the outcome. Beyond that, temperatures and humidity are low, reducing the ball's carry.

I've already talked in-depth about how both of these pitchers can be better than they have been so far this season. Sandoval will not carry a 0.00 ERA throughout the season, but it's not like he's in line for some significant negative regression. His expected ERA is in the Top 10% of baseball, and we've already talked about how he's due to induce more ground balls.

Cease has been highly unfortunate. His last game was a great example of that when the Kansas City Royals scored two runs on just three hits. His expected ERA is better than Sandoval's, and if you looked at his stuff, the eyeball test would tell you the same. I expect it to come in waves for him soon, which may start today.

I'm projecting six to seven runs scored in about 50% of these games. I'm projecting the total runs Under the posted total in about 65% of these games. I'll happily take the Under here as I believe we're getting at least a complete run of value in this spot.

Prediction: Under 8 (-130 at Circa)

Best bet

Typically, I wouldn't go so "all-in" on one spot, but I like the Under here, so I'm not going to overcomplicate things. I'll be taking the F5 under and have found a nice flat number of 4 available at BetMGM.

My projections have this hitting or pushing at around a 75% clip, which is a considerable edge. I feel comfortable with this play based on the quality of the pitching matchup. But what puts it over the top is even though Cease has been unlucky so far this season, he has yet to give up more than three runs through five innings.

While I'm expecting him to improve on that. And even if he doesn't, that will be good enough here as it would be far from a shocker to see Sandoval put up five scoreless innings against the White Sox lineup. That even gets stronger if Vaughn is unable to go.

Pick: F5 Under 4 (-120 at BetMGM)

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