With most of the field for next summer's FIFA World Cup confirmed, sportsbooks have pegged reigning European champions Spain as the favorite to hoist the trophy.
Argentina defeated France in one of the most dramatic World Cup Finals ever in 2022, while Spain was eliminated on penalties in the Round of 16.
Key Takeaways
- England is in the middle of a record-setting run of form.
- Spain won the European Championship in 2024 by winning every single match.
- Erling Haaland has made Norway a legitimate challenger in what will be the country’s first tournament appearance since 1998.
| FanDuel | Caesars | BetMGM | Hard Rock Bet | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +440 | +400 | +400 | +450 |
| England | +600 | +650 | +600 | +600 |
| France | +700 | +700 | +650 | +700 |
| Argentina | +750 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Brazil | +750 | +800 | +750 | +800 |
| Portugal | +1000 | +1100 | +1100 | +1000 |
| Germany | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Netherlands | +1900 | +2000 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Norway | +3000 | +3300 | +2500 | +3000 |
| Italy | +3000 | +3500 | +3300 | +3000 |
| Colombia | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 | +5000 |
There’s unanimous agreement among the top online sportsbooks that Spain, led by phenom Lamine Yamal, is the World Cup odds leader.
Not far behind the Euro 2024 champions is England, which finished as runners-up in that tournament and was eliminated in the quarterfinals of World Cup 2022. They are as low as +600 thanks to new manager Thomas Tuchel, who helped them produce an ongoing and national record 11-game competitive winning streak, aided by a record nine clean sheets in his first 10 matches in charge.
Once the favorites to win the last World Cup and European Championship, France is third in odds. Didier Deschamps will be replaced by Zinedine Zidane following the tournament’s conclusion, but he’s gotten to and won several recent finals with this core group of players.
The defending champions and their arch rival, Brazil, are effectively tied for fourth in odds. Lionel Messi bagged a goal and an assist for Argentina in their last match against Angola, while Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil has plenty of talent, but hasn’t produced great results recently.
Those five nations are the only ones to receive odds shorter than +1000 from the oddsmakers.
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The challengers
Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands are all in the +1000 to +2000 range, although the first two have much shorter odds.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal were knocked out in the quarterfinals of the last World Cup and Euros by Morocco and France, respectively. Germany also lost in the quarterfinals of the Euros, which they hosted, and shockingly failed to make it out of their World Cup group, falling behind Japan and Spain.
The Dutch made it to the semifinals of Euro 2024 despite finishing third in their qualifying group and were knocked out by eventual champions Argentina in the quarterfinals of World Cup 2022. They secured their spot in the upcoming tournament on the final day, although they were unbeaten in their qualifying matches.
One of the biggest surprise contenders is Norway, which has only qualified for three World Cups and never been past the Round of 16. Thanks to Manchester City’s prolific striker, Erling Haaland, the Nordic representatives are eighth in odds at most top sportsbooks. No player in European qualifying scored more goals than Haaland, who found the net in each match en route to sealing his country's place in the tournament.
Italy, who has to win two playoff matches in March to secure its place, is close behind before there’s a drop-off in odds to Colombia and several other teams that are jumbled together.
Yamal’s issues threatening Spain’s status?
Argentina was sixth in odds to win World Cup 2022 (+1000) before the drawing of the groups. The runners-up, France, were tied with Brazil for the odds lead at +550.
Although Spain dominated at Euro 2024, an ongoing situation involving Yamal could threaten their status as World Cup favorites. The 18-year-old megastar has a persistent groin injury that has created tension between his club, Barcelona, and the Spanish Football Federation.
Barca manager Hansi Flick recently slammed Spain’s handling of Yamal’s fitness during World Cup qualifiers and accused them and national team manager Luis de la Fuente of operating against Yamal’s best interests.
