The Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce engagement dominated headlines Tuesday and closed out a six-figure prediction market on Kalshi.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi and Polymarket offered “Yes” and “No” contracts for purchase on whether or not Kelce and Swift would be engaged in 2025.
- Kalshi’s market generated a volume of over $256,000 at close.
- There were spikes and dips along the way, but it was rare to see “Yes” contracts above 50%.
One of the world’s most famous singer-songwriters has been dating the Kansas City Chiefs tight end since 2023, a relationship that took the planet by storm and blended sports and entertainment in a new way.
So it’s no surprise that Kalshi and Polymarket, an event-outcome site not yet authorized in the U.S., launched markets earlier this year, allowing users to purchase contracts on whether or not the couple would be engaged before the end of 2025.
With some late spikes signifying potential news, users on those prediction outcome sites were paid out shortly after the betrothal announcement came via Instagram, setting social media afire.
A post published by both Kelce and Swift showed Kelce on one knee, followed by multiple pictures of the ring and the couple embracing with Swift’s “So High School” playing in the background.
Ups and downs
It was a picturesque way to end a Kalshi market that had a volume of over $256,000, but the “Yes” ending to the engagement question rarely crossed 50%.
Still, just like with relationships, there were ebbs and flows. The lowest the “Yes” market ever reached was 18.7% on Aug. 20. The first time it spiked above 50% was July 28, reaching a high of 55% the next day. The “Yes” outcome fell to 20% on Aug. 23 before hitting its final low of 21% on Sunday.
The market rebounded and surged to 48.9% on Monday, sparking questions about a potential leak. However, it quickly fell back below 25% as buyers and sellers came and went. There was a big move tracked at Polymarket as well.
Not a very consequential thing, but kinda funny: a Polymarket user named "romanticpaul" (yes, his real username) started aggressively buying Taylor Swift to be engaged starting yesterday afternoon around 3pm.
— Domer❤️🔥 (@Domahhhh) August 26, 2025
He nearly doubled the price from a 25% chance (this year) to 45%. You… pic.twitter.com/IXVRqj0eB6
Then the market began a steady rise from 34% on Monday evening to 48.7% by 11 a.m. Tuesday. That percentage paid out a total of $205 on $100 worth of contracts.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi had Kelce and Swift getting engaged this year at slightly less than a coin flip before the announcement. At Polymarket, the odds were at 25% until early this morning when they jumped to 45%... seems like someone knew something!
— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) August 26, 2025
What’s next?
Kalshi, which is federally regulated and operates in all 50 states, provided Americans with a way to be involved in the Swift-Kelce saga that traditional sportsbooks can’t in the U.S.
Now, the prediction platform has a new one: Will Swift and Kelce be married this year? “Yes” is at just 13% with four months left to sweat it out. Kelce is about to begin his 13th and final year in the NFL on Sept. 5 when the Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, and the regular season doesn’t end until January 2026.
Swift, meanwhile, announced a new album Tuesday. Perhaps Kalshi will offer a market on what launches first, "The Life of a Showgirl" or a Kelce-Swift wedding.
